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GNU is Not Unix Software It's funny. Laugh. Linux

Guessing Linux 2.6.0 Release Date 313

Posted by timothy from the angels-on-head-of-pin-typing dept.
thorgil writes "Guessing about the linux-2.6.0 release date is hard, but here is a new angle (pseudo-scientific): I made a graph (gif) based on errors/warnings from John Cherry's (OSDL) compile statistics for linus' linux bitkeeper tree. My guess is around 12th October, 2003. What is your guess and more important, why?"
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Guessing Linux 2.6.0 Release Date More

Guessing Linux 2.6.0 Release Date

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  • My guess (Score:4, Funny)

    by commodoresloat ( 172735 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:31AM (#6803080)
    is that you have way too much free time on your hands.

    • Re:My guess (Score:5, Insightful)

      by tanya2526 ( 669074 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:19AM (#6803251)
      Free time is what all of us visiting Slashdot have. And we like to play with our free time, or to find free time to play around with stuff to come up with something that excites us...

      I think that gif is a nice hack. So lay off those "too much time on your hand" stuff..

      however, I must ask myself - do hacks have to be necessarily of some utility? I mean, Zen would say "it will be out when it will be out".

    • Maybe (Score:4, Funny)

      by thorgil ( 455385 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:29AM (#6803283) Homepage
      Maybe I do... Oh wait... Yeah I do...
    • All time is free. And every healthy person has the same amount in any given day: 23 hours, 56 minutes, and 4 seconds. The idea that we have time that isn't free is actually an illusion created by society to maintain a sense of duty towards certain institutions: your job, etc.

      So try not to criticize how others decide to use their time, unless you're paying them for it. :)

  • Support the Protest Against Patents... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:33AM (#6803089)
    It's ironic that slashdot would run a story about linux today at all. But what really surprises me is that Slashdot would continue operation today, even though they allegedly support the Online Demonstration Against Software Patents [ffii.org].

    I would urge the /. staff to immediately shut down operations and support the
    demonstration, unless they really don't care about open-source software at all.
    • Or in case they decide not to follow the demonstration, they should at least explain why.
    • I second that.

    • Re:Support the Protest Against Patents... (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Actually slashdot does not act in anyones interest at all (other then its own). All it does is be a place to rant and have a mechanism which makes it more effective for whatever the users rant about.

      People would like slashdot to join this demonstartion because they perceive slashdot in their own way but it cannot be 'all ways'.

      Slashdot is a name and thats all it has to it, its mechanism is under the GPL and not patented, it already is fragmenting for several reasons.

      Good thing slashcode is not patented e
    • This may sound like a troll but I have no idea what you're talking about and the link you provided doesn't work. Could you please enlighten me?
    • TBH i have a hard time understanding a protest like that - the only people that will se your support, is people that is very aware of the problems with patents.
      • I disagree. Mainstream media will echo the protest (I don't know about TV, but "El Mundo" is a mainstream newspaper in Spain, and its digital edition [elmundo.es]) talks about the issue today, as it did yesterday.

        Mainstream media like statistics. If important sites like Slashdot join the protest, they can safely add some more thousand affected users to the stats, and the protest becomes more important in the eyes of the public - thus, more important to the politician.
      • hush! hush!

        Your comment is far too logical, rational, realistic, and practical for any of the nerd androids to comprehend.

        SO true Seahawk, and I'm glad you pointed it out- honestly 90% of this slashcrap is masturbation, it is a byproduct of creative minds, geek-droppings, if you will, that aren't going to cease excreting.

        Personally, if they continue to crank out useful products like apache and linux, who cares if they wank here all day- just don't rattle their cages too much.
    • I don't care about losing karma as Redundant or Offtopic, this is really an issue which deserves non-anonymous support.

      Today is an important day for demonstrations here in Europe. If we manage to minimize the damage caused by software patents legislation (ideally cancelling their approval), software freedom (and our personal freedom btw) will be much safer.

      Slashdot, close your operation, shutdown -h NOW!
      Tomorrow you can resume normal activity, and rejoice by talking about how proper your behavior was.
      • Think I'll be forgiven for not realizing that was today? I expected OSDN to shut down, but no...
      • Slashdot, close your operation, shutdown -h NOW!
        Tomorrow you can resume normal activity, and rejoice by talking about how proper your behavior was.

        Yes, because we all know it's the only moral and correct thing to do. And it makes so much sense to protest in a manner that makes your act of protesting completely unknowable on the one day people care about it.

        Geez, get your own website.
    • I have to agree. This trap which is the sk. "Software Patents" needs to be stopped before its sprung here in EU as well.
    • Slashdot's advertisers would be very pissed if Slashdot shut down for a day. Therefore, slashdot will not shut down today.

      Simple logic...
    • Can anyone actually explain what good removing the front page would bring?

    • Sorry but I have patented... (Score:2, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      ...all forms of online protest, including turning off your server to protest or boycott anything. If you shut off your server as a form of protest, then you owe me licensing royalties. If you run your server, well then you owe SCO royalties since they own all operating systems.
    • Slashdot is corporate-owned. It's a business. It makes money. They're not going to shut down their business for a day when they could be posting more SCO, "Microsoft hole," anime, and amateur rocket stories.
    • Ok everyone, lets all hold our breath and turn blue until they give use what we want.

  • May be a good businessmodel? (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:33AM (#6803090)
    Maybe a great open source businessmodel?

    1) Do free stuff.
    2) ?
    3) Call your local bookeeper and gamble on kernel 2.6.0 release-date.
    4) Profit!

  • My guess... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by FrostedWheat ( 172733 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:33AM (#6803093)
    To quote a famous game developer: "When it's done."

  • Stable version? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Vajsvarana ( 238818 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:36AM (#6803100)
    The question that really count is when will the first stable version of 2.6.x be out. I mean 2.6.35 or such...

    • Re:Stable version? (Score:3, Informative)

      by ndogg ( 158021 )
      I, myself, have not tested out the test release, but a lot of people that claim to have done so are saying that it's pretty stable already.

      • Re:Stable version? (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Vajsvarana ( 238818 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @09:30AM (#6804117)
        "Pretty stable" is one thing... by "Stable" I mean "No data corruption/work loss", which is another one.
        Unfortunately 2.4.0 was "pretty stable" too, but until 2.4.18 reiserfs and block devices bugs caused many cases of data corruption, which costed to my firm quite a good amount of work and money.

        Maybe I'm much too conservative on this, but I think that whichever software (expecially a kernel!) should not be considered "Stable" until the absence of crashes and data corruption has been thoroughly stress-tested. Sorry, but "it' been up for some days on some PC" is just not enough.

        Flamebait? Maybe. But I really don't like the current attitude toward kernel versioning:

        maybe it compiles -> devel
        compiles (quite) and seems to work -> stable
        no more serious bugs -> end of life, occasional maintanance

        I think it shoud be:

        maybe it compiles -> don't even release
        seems to work -> unstable
        no more serious bugs -> stable, thorough maintenance to squash last few bugs.

        "End Of Life" of a stable version shoud happen only when a newer one goes stable. Waiting months to see the security breach on 2.4.20 corrected while no other stable kernel were around should happen NO MORE.

        Forcing users to test new kernels by cheating on version numbers it's not a way to gain testers, but rather to loose many of them, after their data gets eaten...
      • My experience has been that the compile system is broken when it comes to serial devices and modules. I couldn't compile things as modules without manual editing of some build configs.
    • Stable as a rock:

      [dave@bend ~]# uname -a
      Linux bend.local.davenjudy.org 2.6.0-test4 #1 SMP Sat Aug 23 10:15:04 MDT 2003 i686 athlon i386 GNU/Linux
      [dave@bend ~]# uptime
      10:31:57 up 3 days, 22:02, 9 users, load average: 0.06, 0.01, 0.00

      and much more responsive than 2.4. I'm at work right now so this system is basically idle but it gets hammered when I'm at home.

  • Sure it compiles. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by noselasd ( 594905 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:42AM (#6803117)
    But I don't think the "it compiles, let's ship it" is the criteria for releasing 2.6.0 A better way is to look at Andrew Mortons must-fix list. When most items are fixes, it can be released. ftp://ftp.kernel.org/pub/linux/kernel/people/akpm/ must-fix/must-fix-6.txt
    • This file is 15KB long and also includes the line

      A couple of hundred real looking bugzilla bugs
      The way I see it it'll never get released! :-(

    • Re:Sure it compiles. (Score:2, Interesting)

      by leuk_he ( 194174 )
      well looging at that dir [kernel.org]:
      (and assuming morton will be the 2.6 maintainer)

      05/12/03 10:49PM 17,511 must-fix-1.txt
      05/12/03 10:50PM 19,024 must-fix-2.txt
      05/14/03 02:33AM 23,417 must-fix-3.txt
      05/15/03 12:38AM 27,594 must-fix-4.txt
      05/21/03 05:32PM 28,070 must-fix-4a.txt
      05/21/03 09:59PM 30,821 must-fix-5.txt
      05/30/03 11:35PM 15,294 must-fix-6.txt
      05/30/03 11:35PM 19,045 should-fix-6.txt

      The must fix list is not stable at all over time. It grew so big h
    • That's the problem. It doesn't compile!

      I wont be testing it until allmods compiles; anything less is a complete waste of my time. I'll report bugs, but I'm not going to modify the kernel, just so I can run a buggy kernel and be told that I put the bugs in there. I have enough instability on my machine.

      Joe

  • Best fit? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by steveheath ( 119200 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:46AM (#6803123)
    Should it be a linear best-fit? I'd be guessing that the number of errors/warnings will only approach zero? Much like tracking bugs.. On second thoughts, errors will more than likely hit zero but warnings we can live with..
    Anyway, interesting stuff :)

  • November, 30th (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Crash42 ( 116408 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:49AM (#6803136)
    Oct, 12th is in about 6 weeks. So, because every IT project takes twice as long as you think, my guess is around Nov, 30th.

  • beta testers (Score:2, Interesting)

    by btSeaPig ( 701895 )
    For those of use that are running the 2.5/2.6beta kernel, what should we do when we do find bugs?
    • Patch them and send the patches to lkml.

    • Re:beta testers (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jbert ( 5149 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:35AM (#6803301)
      Do some searching around (linux-kernel mailing list archives, the bugzilla for linux-kernel) and try to work out whether it has already been reported.

      Ensure that you can reproduce the problem on the latest kernel.

      If the bug has only just appeared, it is very useful for the developers to know which kernel version it appeared in. The best way to find this out is to do a binary search between the working and non-working kernel versions.

      If it has been reported, you might be able to contact the relevant maintainer (check the bug details or the MAINTAINERS file for details) and get a "possible fix" patch to try out.

      If it hasn't been reported, I guess the best way to report it is to use the bugzilla [osdl.org]. Please read and follow the advice there for how to report a bug, but again common sense applies.

      Depending on the bug and your level of interest and ability, it can be really fun to try and work out a fix yourself.

      (Sometime you can do this even if you aren't a great coder

      e.g. Once I couldn't mount a CD and had a kernel message error about a 2k block size. I knew nothing about the driver, but grepped for the message, found it was bracketed by a "is it 1k or 4k" test. Simply adding 2k as another option to the "if" test and recompiling/rebooting allowed the CD to mount. That ruled.)

      If you do produce your own fix, sending it to the relevant maintainer as a suggested change may be helpful, but please don't be upset if your fix isn't used. There are many reasons (some good, some bad) why something which works for someone isn't a good thing in general. (If you do send a patch, use 'diff -u oldfile.c newfile.c' to generate the patch file)).

      Good luck

    • For those of use that are running the 2.5/2.6beta kernel, what should we do when we do find bugs?

      Some resources:

  • Since when (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Bluelive ( 608914 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:51AM (#6803147)
    Since when do compile time errors and warnings reaching zero mean that there no more bugs in a program? Most bugs are those the compiler doesnt complain about.

    • since ADA (Score:3, Informative)

      by ShaggyZet ( 74769 )
      Not that I think it's the greatest language or anything, but my experience with ADA was that vastly more stupid things that programmers (in this case me) do show up as compile time errors. Almost to the point where if a program compiled it was bug free. Of course it's still possible to have a logical errors, but whole classes of what would be run time errors in C are compile time errors when ADA is properly used with things like range checking.
      • So, should Linus rewrite the kernel in ADA? :)
        • Your sig is hilarious. The average /. reader is an idiot. Half of /. readers are below average. Are you scared yet? You're confusing average with median, and I'm more concerned about people who post :)
    • You're right, just because it compiles doesn't mean it's done, but if it compiles successfully for a while it does mean that not too much new is going on and it might be ready for a release.

      All measurements of this kind have inaccuracies. Do you have a better one? If so, then let's hear it.
    • Yeah, that whole undecidability thing getting in the way again.
    • There are two factors that suggest that it'll be stable at about the time it is debugged:

      A lot of the things which differ between 2.4 and 2.6 with respect to drivers are the APIs of some important things they depend on. The new APIs are less error-prone. This suggests that a driver will work correctly if it worked before and has been updated, and it won't compile otherwise.

      Drivers don't get updated until the interfaces are stable and the kernel otherwise works well enough for the people who maintain those
    • You must not do software development. Many software shops call it done if it compiles. The rest is up to QA (which is us, I'm running 2.6.0pre3 and its pretty danmed good).

  • July 13 (Score:5, Insightful)

    by muirhead ( 698086 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:52AM (#6803148) Homepage
    Kernel 2.6.0-test1 was released by on July 13 2003.

    What are you waiting for?

    • Re:July 13 (Score:2, Informative)

      by Shisha ( 145964 )
      I'm waiting for a test* kernel with working software suspend. I've tried test2 and that didn't work, test3 worked about 2/3 times and so maybe test4 will be OK. There are mdk packages out there with test4 so maybe I'll give it a try.
      • Using 2.6.pre4 since yesterday. And it was the first build where suspend worked for me, so you might give it a try.
      • I suspect that the previous poster meant to address people who aren't testing, not people who aren't using it.
    • Uhh...yeah...some of us will for 2.6.1 or 2.6.2... the 2.x.0 releases have traditionally been quite buggy. ;)

  • Should have been a poll (Score:5, Insightful)

    by G3ckoG33k ( 647276 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @05:52AM (#6803150)
    This should have been a poll. Now, it just leads to endless ramblings.
  • Give me my daily dose of SCO!

  • LaLaLa (Score:5, Funny)

    by NtwoO ( 517588 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:06AM (#6803212) Homepage
    PROGRAMMERS DRINKING SONG:

    99 little bugs in the code,
    99 bugs in the code,
    fix one bug, compile it again,
    101 little bugs in the code.

    101 little bugs in the code ...
    (Repeat until BUGS = 0)

    • Re:LaLaLa (Score:5, Funny)

      by IWannaBeAnAC ( 653701 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:25AM (#6803272)
      (Repeat until BUGS = 0)

      Which presumably happens when the bug count wraps around from 2^31 to -2^31+1 then up to zero...

      Maybe this is the basis for Microsoft release schedules?

      • You mean when the bug count wraps from 2^31-1 to -2^31 then up to 0. 0 counts as a positive number because the sign bit is not set, thus we still have equal numbers of positive and negative numbers. By your math we'd have two more positive numbers than negative.
      • Unfortunately, since the number of bugs is odd and increasing by two each iteration, you'll go straight from -1 to 1, and never be finished.

        Thus, it's obviously the basis for the HURD's release schedule.

      • Re:LaLaLa (Score:3, Funny)

        by Sri Lumpa ( 147664 )

        Which is why they don't have a 64-bit Windows released yet, not enough bugs to overflow 2^63
    • it should be either:

      (Repeate until BUGS == 0)

      ('=' is an assignment operator, '==' is a comparison operator)

      or:

      while (BUGS > 0): sing(...)

  • Obligatory Linus Quote (Score:3, Funny)

    by Temporal ( 96070 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:19AM (#6803252) Journal
    "Testing? What's that? If it compiles, it is good, if it boots up it is perfect." -- Linus Torvalds

    So now we're guessing the release date based on when it will compile without errors, eh?

  • Wrong question (Score:5, Insightful)

    by GrouchoMarx ( 153170 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:26AM (#6803277) Homepage
    When the kernel itself is declared "released" is irrelevant to most people. If you really want the latest and greated, you can always download whatever the current version is, whatever it's called, and use it.

    What's important is when most distro companies (other than bleedinge edge Gentoo and "we don't need no steenking 2.x kernels" Debian) will start building their distributions around 2.6-final instead of 2.4. For that, it's quite obvious at this point: The spring refresh cycle. (The fall cycle may have a few optional pre-release kernels, but the real action will be the spring.) Sometime in the April timeframe we'll see Red Had, Mandrake, and SuSE releasing 2.6-based versions. Hopefully they'll also have funness like KDE 3.2 and so on by then, which are just as important to most people.

    When Linus says "ok, I'm done, let's work on something else" isn't important. When Red Hat says "we'll give you a support contract on this now", THAT'S important.

    • Re:Wrong question (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Karora ( 214807 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:34AM (#6803297) Homepage

      What's important is when most distro companies (other than bleedinge edge Gentoo and "we don't need no steenking 2.x kernels" Debian)

      Debian Unstable currently has 2.6.0-test kernels available.

      Your complaint, which is perhaps mildly legitimate, is that Debian Woody (current "stable") was released with the standard default vanilla kernel as a 2.2 kernel.

      In fact it had plenty of choices there for people who wanted to run 2.4 kernels - they just weren't the default standard vanilla choice.

      Really: just what you want for a stable server-oriented environment.

      • From debian woody release notes:

        Debian GNU/Linux 3.0 for the Intel x86 architecture ships with kernel version 2.2.22.

        The 2.2 kernel series has been updated and developed extensively introducing several valuable changes both in the kernel and in other programs based on kernel features, along with a whole slew of new hardware drivers and bug fixes for existing drivers.

        A 2.4 kernel is also included in this release for optional installation by users. Although the 2.4 branch is considered by the kernel deve

    • other than bleedinge edge Gentoo and "we don't need no steenking 2.x kernels" Debian

      This makes me smile.

      Not that it's not too much of an strech. :)

      I'm running several gentoo boxen, all with at least 2.6.0-test3-mm1 or higher.

      It's pretty damn good, but there is always room for improvement.

    • Re:Wrong question (Score:4, Interesting)

      by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @09:42AM (#6804233)
      When the kernel itself is declared "released" is irrelevant to most people. If you really want the latest and greated, you can always download whatever the current version is, whatever it's called, and use it.


      Actually it's highly relevant. People (myself included to some extent) don't like running alpha/beta kernels on their everyday machines unless they have nothing of value if it all screws up. I'm sure I'll get the usual reassurances that -test1 "works fine for me" etc. but the point still stands.


      Now I think it's close enough to release that I'll give it a spin myself as it has some drivers I want, but then I'm capable of building and configuring the kernel. A vast number of people are not capable or inclined to do that and are waiting for their favourite dists to ship with it.


      Which comes to the second point. No distribution, be it Red Hat, Suse or even Mandrake is going to ship with a beta kernel by default. They're all waiting for 2.6.0 to be stamped and labelled, and possibly have a few more patches on top again before they'll bet the bank on it. Even if that means delaying their release, or having a 'backup plan' to ship a dual 2.4.x / 2.6.x system with support for the new kernel coming in the form of patches when it's ready. And believe me, 2.6.0 offers some extremely sexy stuff that dists and end users would dearly like, e.g. ALSA sound instead of the shitty OSS for one, but all kinds of improvements including general responsiveness tweaks. But only when its officially ready.


      So the new kernel getting to 2.6.0 (and deserving that moniker because it is now production quality) is extremely relevant to lots of people. That doesn't stop people from diving in when they feel comfortable, but the tidal wave is not going to happen until 2.6.0 goes final.

      • No distribution, be it Red Hat, Suse or even Mandrake is going to ship with a beta kernel by default.

        I'm not sure where you would even get a beta kernel. The X.Y.Z releases, where Y is odd denotes a development kernel. I've used development kernels in production for 2 servers before because I actually needed the features (extra file descriptors) that the 2.1.125 (IIRC) kernel had to offer, and had no problems.

        Ironically, most ( >95% ) of the patches, exploits, problems with all of the above distros

  • still some big issues (Score:3, Informative)

    by drago ( 1334 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:35AM (#6803302)
    I don't think it will happen during the next 6 weeks, there are still some major things to be done. IDE still does not work as module (some circular dependencies in symbols), ISDN is still somewhere between the no longer working old model and the not yet complete CAPI support, just to name two.

  • Easy one (Score:3, Funny)

    by marvin2k ( 685952 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @06:51AM (#6803356)
    "When it's done." I think this is a good "guess" for two reasons:

    a) it's 100% accurate.
    b) It didn't cost me precious hours of my life to come up with this answer.

    I'll now continue to invest my time in more important stuff...like reading slashdot.
    (Hey! They say it's "Stuff that matters!")

  • Hofstadters law (Score:3, Insightful)

    by kluro ( 316441 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @07:04AM (#6803397)
    Hofstadters law:

    "Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadters law."
    Douglas Hofstadter, "Godel, Esher, Bach", ISBN: 0465026567
  • How much will the release be delayed because of that f***ing SCO stuff?

    How much influence has SCO on the developers, e.g. make them response to the SCO FUD instead of fixing bugs in the kernel? That's also a sort of "denial of service" attack.

  • didn't Linus said that 2.6 was being released when x86 code was stable?
    And other archs maybe would have to wait some minor versions?

    Considering this and the graph predictions, my guess is 3-4th week of September.
  • It will be released on my 22nd birthday -- December 9th, 2003. Also the MONDAY of our exams week here at Ohio State [bucknuts.com].

    It really sucked last year when my 21st birthday was also on the Monday of exams week. OSU's present to me? The toughest exam (EE) I've had there yet, at 7:30am nonetheless. But don't worry, after that, the rest of the week was a blur.

  • At the very moment that the last jelly bean is removed from this jar! So now all you have to do is figure out how many jelly beans there are in the jar!

    2.6.0-test* seems solid enough for daily use, although if you have a laptop with a Synaptics touchpad, there seem to be some problems with the driver for that (I've not been able to get mine recognized but I prefer the USB mouse anyway.)


  • Based on the 2.4 experience with the memory mapper changing horses well after 2.4.0, I'd be careful making predictions.

    Also, Linus is now full time at OSDL (+).

    Also, Alan will be going back to school (-). Good for him, though.

    I'll go out on a limb, though, and say

    6 December 2004
    which is evidently [buyusa.gov] Finnish Independence Day.
  • I'd bet you could do this on one of those online betting sites. I guess you could use that graph to calculate odds for betting.
  • I don't know enough about the Linux dev process to comment on it, but in software I've worked on there's typically time tacked onto the end of the schedule to do performance testing and tweaking.
  • If he's ready by October 15th he should wait to release it then. That's doing to be a date of massive sucktitude. SCO raises their linux "prices" and Microsoft drops support for older MSN protocols and bans uncertified third-party clients. Also, it's my birthday and I want a good birthday present.

  • What's the prize? (Score:3, Funny)

    by Josuah ( 26407 ) on Wednesday August 27, 2003 @11:58AM (#6805433) Homepage
    So, does the person who guesses closest receive a free copy of the 2.6 kernel?
  • Never mind the release date! When are we going to see the next SCO article?
  • I have worked on exactly ONE project that did something sane to predict this date. It was so simple I don't know why everyone in the world doesn't do this.
    NumDays = NumOpenBugs/(bugsClosed-bugsOpend)*time period

    Very simple, and suprisingly effective for large projects where the bug finding and bug closing rate is very close to constant over a period of time (lets say a week)

    So basically this says, that as long as your bug openning rate is higher than your bug closing rate, don't even bother predicting a

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