235,000 Fewer Programmers by 2015 982
RonMcMahon writes "According to a CNN Money article, Forrester Research is predicting that there will be 235,396 fewer Computer Programmers and Software Engineers employed in 2015 than there are today in America. This is a 25% reduction in the number of positions from today's depressed numbers. This sucks. I know that many companies are moving work off-shore, but wow, that's half the population of Wyoming!"
The real question (Score:3, Informative)
Not to be partisan or anything (Score:4, Informative)
Of course, it is notup to date on the stock market, but I suspect that that may be a shell game anyhow, at least on some level.
Specialize or change fields (Score:4, Informative)
As much as it does suck I honestly see the only real way forward for software engineers and programmers is to either move into or start a research and development company and develop highly specialized software or to move into a new area of IT.
Honestly I would prefer if you didnt move into the system administration area, that would be mine,
The only way to keep your job secure is to work in face to face/onsite support or IT management although I am sure some clever CEO/CTO will figure out how to move those overseas as well.
One of the funniest things I read this year was a guarntee from our American management that they would not be moving the software development section from Australia to America from Australia, it was originally an Australian company so we didn't steal any American jobs
The real thing I want to know is where will the jobs be that are not outsourced to other countries and why will they be the ones to stay in comparison to those that are sent overseas.
Re:Time for a career switch... (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Whatever happened to... (Score:3, Informative)
Exported vs. Going Away (Score:2, Informative)
It's not clear to me that the shrinkage is necessarily because of outsourcing overseas as everyone seems to be assuming. Sure that might be (doubtless will be) part of it but it doesn't seem that would be the only trend. In addition, in spite of the increase in the number of computers and things automated, there's also an increase in use of packaged software and tools that greatly increase productivity. A lot more can be accomplished with a lot fewer porogrammers than 10 or 20 years ago.
You can certainly find lots of examples in other industries where far fewer people are employed in spite of higher overall domestic output because of productivity increases.
Re:Big Deal (Score:5, Informative)
First we made information networked and portable so that anyone is capable of working with it at any place.
Then we actively promoted "free" software that we work on for no pay. We actively promoted others to use "free" software and to produce it themselves.
Now we act surprised when others are capable of writing software in other countries and are willing to do it for low wages.
Survival of the fitest in this case means we ACTIVELY WORKED at making our jobs less valuable and our presense less nessesary. I'm not saying this is a bad thing; we just reap what we sow.
TW
Re:Not to be partisan or anything (Score:3, Informative)
Nope. You remember incorrectly.
Re:Not to be partisan or anything (Score:5, Informative)
Interesting theory [cnn.com]. I guess that depends on your definition of [cornell.edu] "people." [archives.gov]
Personally, I feel that the state of the economy is due to the combination of the policies of the sitting president and the president that came before them. For example, Clinton fed the bubble despite a long cautionary history about preventing an economy from expanding too quickly. However, a sitting president is most definitely responsible for the federal deficit [littlepiggy.net] that is racked up during their administration, as they have direct control over such policies.
Re:Big Deal (Score:5, Informative)
My current manager isn't the most cluefull, but he's a good guy with good management skills. I try to make sure he understands w/o a doubt what i'm doing and why i'm doing it. Not to an atomic degree, but to a good general one.
Regarding "941,584 programmers today" (Score:4, Informative)
585,000 computer programmers [bls.gov]
697,000 software engineers [bls.gov]
And that doesn't include the 887,000 systems analysts, computer scientists, and database administrators [bls.gov], some of which are almost certainly working in programming positions.
However, given that these numbers (1,282,000 computer programmers and software engineers) are from the year two thousand, before the massive layoffs of the past few years really started happening, the 941,584 number doesn't seem all that out of the ballpark.
It's the end of the world as we know it... (Score:3, Informative)
The fundamental fact is that there are too many people in IT for the total budget available for IT spend. That means it's going to be tough for many. There will be little time to work out who is the best person for the job. In this climate, being good at your job is no guarantee of employment or a reasonable salary.
Overseas outsourcing will become less attractive because employers can get away with paying jack shit for local employees by relying on the over-supply of people who don't want to believe that the CS degree isn't worth anything to anyone any more.
Re:But the economy is recovering! (Score:2, Informative)
In reference to another economy-related post above, the US Dollar is dropping in value even as Bushie-boy and Treasury Sec. Snow-job declare that they "support a strong dollar". For those who'd rather see the true picture, good charts for the dollar and other items can be found here. [ino.com]
Re:I knew I should have gone for an EE degree (Score:5, Informative)
You'll always have a job if you have a clearance. (Score:5, Informative)
S/W Engineers vs Programmers (Score:4, Informative)
If you're worried about your job security, start learning more than just programming languages and APIs. (Of course, until we have a proper accreditation system, anyone in the s/w industry can call themselves an engineer...)
Re:Absolutely right (Score:2, Informative)
Look at the havily-unionized steel, automotive, and textile industries. They're fleeing this country to a greater extent than tech jobs. I would expect unionized IT to have the same effect. What possible protection could a union provide against development shifting overseas? It's already being done for cost reasons, increasing job security et al would simply make moving overseas even more cost-effective.
Re:Major issues that ought to be addressed (Score:1, Informative)
Seriously, you HAVE to be kidding or trying to open a flame war.
I have personally worked on many projects where there was at least one DEAD WEIGHT Indian on the team that didn't know sh*t, didn't know how to improve his/her knowledge of sh*t, and didn't care.
The only thing that they did do was worked very hard and long at producing the sh*t they did come out with, putting in many hours, convincing the dipstick management that they were great workers. Newsflash: Doesn't matter how hard you work if your output is crap.
We will see how this all pans out. Maybe as well as Dell farming out their phone tech support?
Re:Time for a career switch... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Regarding "941,584 programmers today" (Score:2, Informative)
The total number of H1-Bs issued being roughly equivalent to the total number of techs working today doesn't have a whole hell of a lot to do with anything, unless your assumption is that all tech workers currently employed are H1-Bs, which is obviously untrue. Not to mention that H1-B visas have a 2-year expiration date last I checked, which means that (barring extension) all the visas issued during Clinton's campaign have expired.
But let's not make this a Clinton thing, because I know Bill O'Reilly and the gang can go on all day about what fantastic time we're living in and how underhanded and deceitful the Clinton administration was, and how we'll be much better off with another 4 years under Bush etc. etc. etc. Let's also not make it a money thing, because my point was never that I feel I should be paid outrageous amount of money for the services that I offer. The current tech layoffs are not about outrageous employee salaries, they are about the fact that you can offshore your department to India for pennies on the dollar of what you're paying your employees. Even if we were all capable of doing our thing for $20,000 a year, we can't compete with India and China in that respect.
From a neo-conservative dickhead standpoint, this seems like a good idea: slash the bottom line, get myself a nice fat bonus, the hell with all the workers that I'm laying off as long as we get the job done. I realize that this type of person doesn't have a lot of respect for the middle class, but I think in 5-10 years we'll see that the middle class is the strength of this country. Tuition is skyrocketing, yet recent graduates can't get jobs. Middle class parents who can barely afford to send their kid to school in the first place are having to make hard decisions; the house or college. If there's no real value in that degree, this decision becomes simpler. Middle class bankruptcies are at record numbers, the number of citizens that can even call themselves middle class is rapidly dwindling, but the Dow is up given that companies are starting to see the profit margin from firing everyone.
Hopefully when you're old enough to vote, you'll have more perspective on things.
Arabic numbers were an INDIAN invention..... (Score:5, Informative)
Even the Muslims [islamicity.com] say so. . .
Re:Programmers == Carpenters?? (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Time for a career switch... ... back to college (Score:3, Informative)
It was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA and GAT into law (after Clinton promised not to during his run for pres).
Thanks for giving the wealthiest 5% huge tax cuts so they'll never know near-poverty, like I do.
Everyone got tax cuts and that wealthiest 5% of Americans still pay nearly half or the US tax base. Also for someone who came close to six figures a couple of years ago to be near poverty now does not say allot about how you managed your money.
WTF is $1700 going to do towards tuition? nuttin
Its a good chunk of tuition at an Undergrad school [buffalo.edu] you don't have a right to college money for school take the money which covers the fees and be glad. if you flip burgers 40hrs a week in the summer you can earn most of the years tuition and if you work 10-15 hrs a week in tuition like I did you'll get the rest and beer money to boot.
e first American president to START a war. The first American president who detained American citizens, in the United States
Lincoln did not start a war?, LBJ did not start a war?, Clinton did not drag the US into Kosovo? BTW Lincoln also detained without charging people, and without due process but why let history interfere with your rant.
Do you know that we are holding over 660 men at Camp X-Ray, in cages, like dogs?
Really being allowed to practice, your religion, 3 squares a day, seeing an imam is being treated like a dog? I am against camp x-ray but moronic exaggeration is not going to help.
So, thanks to the 49% of the country that did vote for Bush, and those who still support him, we have a hitler in office.
Its called the constitution, and the Electorial college system, gets over it. Its designed to make urban and rural area equally politically important if Gore had managed to win his own state it would not have mattered. That's it compare Bush to Hitler, its so clear to me now Gross use of slander for those you politically disagree with has shown me the light..
My job in IT, and countless like them are disappearing - and whats most disturbing is that our industry is only 35 years old! Only 10 of which did our industry emerge from specialized functions to become an sizable group, and already we are sent out. So thank you, America, for sitting back, watching your reality TV and 4 hours of sportscenter every night and allowing all this to happen. It's the fault of both parties and both wings, Republicans wrote NAFTA/GAT and Bill Clinton Signed it. Bill Clinton allowed the Chinese to get computer and rocket technology that should have stayed secret. And finally its your fault for bitching about it on slashdot and not registering voters, and pumping for a third party candidate who cares about the US (this excludes the Greens).
Re:One partial explanation ... (Score:3, Informative)
That said, the reason for two different editions of books generally had more to do with tax laws than dialect. When one compares two versions, the differences are generally at most minimal, and frequently missing. But the cover price can be quite different nonetheless.
Spoken English is generally not as reqular as written English, however. And it tends to evolve vowel and consonant shifts quite quickly, though currently the media are tending to homogenize these into a few major dialects.
Re:Regarding "941,584 programmers today" (Score:3, Informative)
He's had 3 years to roll this back. ANd hasn't.
So those who are in IT tech, and unemployed, and voted for Bush, I'd like to send you a jar of vaseline for Christmas.
Re:Time for a career switch... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Business 2.0 Agrees With You (Score:2, Informative)
The Expatriate Option In India (Score:2, Informative)
The upshot: theoretically, it's possible. Now for some reality.
Visas: The Indian government slots visitors in order of preference: persons of Indian hertitage, other persons, Pakistanis and Afghans.
If your ancestry traces back to India, there is a special visa program for you. It's assumed that you've picked up some skills out in the world, and India wants to encourage you to bring 'em home to develop the nation.
If you are of other nationalities, a work visa is available. When applying, you must present documentation from an employer that they will be responsible for you. Good luck on that. If you're bringing a lot of capital and a business plan, well, that's another matter. Your visa must be renewed every year and a half or so.
If you are Pakistani or Afghan, it's obvious they don't trust you, and you'll have to submit considerable additional documentation.
Work Environment: Universities in India are pumping out a lot of tech grads, and there aren't yet enough jobs for all of them, although regional labor shortages do occur. Ergo, there's a lot of competition for jobs, so unless you were lead architect on the NT or Linux kernels in your last position (and if you are, you aren't getting outsourced, yet), don't think you're a shoo in. In fact, for an employer [rekha.com] to even go to the bother of hiring you, you'll need to show a truly sterling CV. After all, it's a major business risk and pain in the ass for them to bring you in country in the first place. As an aside, there seems to be opportunity for Japanese speakers now that firms are seeking to tap the demand for outsourcing from Japan. You'll working in a 1.5m square three sided cube, if you're lucky. Some up and coming companies [eximsoft.com] claim to respect that employees might have a life beyond the office, which should tell you what the norm is. When a contract is finished, you may find your ass back out on the street very quickly, just like in the States, and the social safety net assumes you've got family to lean on. You do not want to go broke in India.
Renting: As a foreigner, you can't buy property. There is a wide variety of rental properties, ranging from mansions and modern high rise condos you couldn't afford on a San Jose salary, to the very pits. You really need to do your homework [indax.com] on this. Even though you may be working on an Indian pay scale, land lords will assume you're loaded, so it would be a major plus to bring an Indian friend to help you negotiate.
Getting On Line: The Indian government has only started moving to open up the infrastructure. In the meantime, brother, welcome back to dialup, and it ain't pretty. Getting regular phone service enabled can require several trips to the telecom office, with a side trip to the switching station to introduce yourself to the technicians. Getting dialup on that same line means more money, and more delays. Count on the link being noisy and unreliable. ISDN is available in some areas, but usually isn't linked to a TCP trunk(!). Switched 56k and up is available in some locations, but even 56k is well over US$1000/month. This might be an ideal environment to start an 802.11b freenet, but the equipment