U.S. Programmers An Endangered Species? 1361
CommanderData writes "USA Today reports that US Programmers are an 'Endangered Species' and expects them to be 'extinct' within the next few years, replaced by offshoring and H-1B visa holders. They suggest people will manage overseas projects, become self-employed, or switch to other fields. What do my fellow code-dinosaurs plan to do before the asteroid hits?" A report on Newsforge (which is part of OSTG along with Slashdot) shows the flip side of the coin.
Defense Programming (Score:5, Informative)
Re:An idea (Score:5, Informative)
That's a good idea -- if you can get a clearance. Getting a security clearance can be difficult for various reasons. For one thing, you have to find a company that will sponsor you (either that, or go to work for the government). For another, you have to meet the requirements for a clearance, and they've tightened those up since 9/11 (I should know -- when I applied for a clearance, the government told me they'd have to investigate me for well over a year, just because I had changed my name). I even know of one guy who's been cleared for a while but is now in jeopardy of losing his clearance because his wife is French.
But yes -- if you can get the clearance, that's definitely an excellent way to give yourself a good dose of career security.
Wow! This is breaking news! (Score:5, Informative)
The death of the American Programmer has been heralded many times before. Back before spreading terror about the eminent collapse of our non-Y2K compliant world, Ed Yourdon wrote a little book of doom called The Rise and Fall of the American Programer [amazon.com], in which a dim future was projected for our overpaid and underworked behinds.
He wrote this is 1993.
Some of you will remember that the booming economy of the mid to late 90s in which being able to say "internet" landed you a tech job.
It will take more years to evaluate the real impact of offshoring on the American Programmer. If programming is what you enjoy doing, you will always have work (although you will have to be flexible in what you program).
As always, don't panic.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:3, Informative)
The mere fact that a decent number of high-tech high-skill jobs are going overseas was completely glossed over. What saddend me was that Kerry didn't say anything about it either.
Re:strange indeed (Score:3, Informative)
H-1B in the U.S. make largely what U.S. citizens make.
The jobs overseas are a whole different ballgame.
Offshoring doesn't work for everything... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Programming versus Software Engineering (Score:2, Informative)
I had a great team that worked close with the business and developed a lot of new extreme programming practices. In the end the execs decide with their checkbooks. India resources are very cheap. Unfortunatly the execs had not realized the hidden cost of the main customer service website not working properly or not even running. The other item the business folks want it the latest products, pricing and promotions on the web in a very timely fashion. They don't get any of that now but they are stuck with the resources the IT department decides to use.
As for me, I've seen the writing on the wall. Consulting rates have been pushed down and other then boutique consulting, hard to command a decent rate for the effort required. I've had enough and to quote the "City Slickers" movie, my life is a do-over.
Washington Post Articles on American Labor woes .. (Score:2, Informative)
BTW, Harriss Miller and the ITAA are the ENEMY on this issue and the IEEE is the good guy. Check out IEEE Legislative action center [capwiz.com] to help us take action on these issues.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:5, Informative)
When I suggested a couple of years ago that she could go back to school she just glared at me and said "27 years of school was enough". I can't believe Bush thinks "get a job" is an economic policy, which is why my wife and I are voting for Kerry this year.
Check this out -- funny! http://www.theonion.com/election2004/news_4013.ph
You're wrong... (Score:3, Informative)
Debating (healthily) is okay, but spreading FUD is not.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:5, Informative)
I really wish I could take back my vote in 2000 and give it to Gore.
Bush is great if you're rich, own a major oil or logging company, like to breathe CO2, or look forward to the 23 rise on sea level.
If you're the average Joe in the U.S. that doesn't buy into the whole Saddam = Terrorism garbage, then Bush eats it. I'm sick to death of his cheesy grin and empty rhetoric.
Anyone But Bush [anyonebutbush.com]
John Kerry is a Douche Bag But I'm Voting For Him Anyway [johnkerryi...anyway.com]
Bush & H-1B visas (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Wow! This is breaking news! (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Auto jobs??? (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:3, Informative)
Jesus, only a grade schooler would make such an argument.
Some numbers (Score:3, Informative)
1999 Numbers : [bls.gov]
2000 Numbers : [bls.gov]
2001 Numbers : [bls.gov]
2002 Numbers : [bls.gov]
2003 Numbers : [bls.gov]
Difference, 1999-2003
Considering the tech burst, the generally faltering economy, outsourcing, the MPAA, and 9/11, it's pretty good. Especially if you aren't a programmer (incidentally, they average around 8-10k less a year than the software engineers, IIRC).
I'm not a wonk, I'm a geek, so please forgive if I have my numbers or sources wrong somehow.
Would you stop it about the H1Bs? (Score:5, Informative)
Would you stop it about the H1Bs? They are *NOT* "stealing" your jobs! For an H1B to be hired, the company has to *prove* that the foreign worker is better qualified than local available workforce for the position they are being hired. And the salary level *must* be approved by the local dept. of labor. In fact, many companies avoid H1Bs like a plague because it takes too much effort to do the paperwork, and they have to wait 4-5 months before getting an approval.
No US company would hire an H1B if they could have an American doing that job. Especially considering that H1Bs are limited to 6 years.
I'm an H1B and I've been one for the past 6 years. I'm leaving to go to Canada in the spring because I'm coming up on my limit and can't continue working at my current job past July. I'm good at what I do, I have excellent English skills (and Russian, and now French), and I have good references. I have paid all my taxes (including Social Security, which I won't ever see back, since I don't qualify for it), and nearly everything I earned in the past 6 years went back into your economy.
Feel free to bitch about offshoring your jobs, since the money actually leaves your economy forever, but don't blame H1Bs if you lose your job. That's not how it works.
</rant>Re:Saving the species.. (Score:2, Informative)
We interface.
I still can't get my wife to say "Enq" and waiting for me to say "Ack" before she asks a question.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:5, Informative)
No, YOU go watch it again.
A note about the Pell Grants he talks about: they are automatic, not something that is "expanded" deliberately by a president. You become eligible for Pell Grants once your income falls below a certain level. The fact that more people are getting Pell Grants than before is not something for him to be bragging about- it's a direct consequence of increased poverty during his administration. It takes a lot of gall for him to actually brag about Pell Grants expanding.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Our Education System is Better than you Think (Score:3, Informative)
So someone who's working on an H1B isn't necessarily foreign-EDUCATED, only foreign. Plenty of H1B workers are US educated.
Re:Our Education System is Better than you Think (Score:4, Informative)
In that time, I have seen the the basic skills of the students decline dramatically. Most of the papers I've read by my classmates read like papers written by non-native speakers of English... and these are the born-and-raised American students! Simple problem-solving skills seem to be non-existent in the current generation of college students. Worst of all, academic dishonesty is rampant--when I started my college career, no one even considered cheating, but now many of the students in my classes cheat without even realizing they're cheating! Even worse, there seems to be an attitude among today's students that they are entitled to pass a class, regardless of their performance.
The only real light of hope I can see in this situation is the fact that the foriegn students, at least the ones from non-Western countries (at my school, I haven't really run into any non-Americans from Europe (perhaps because European schools are good enough that no one wants to come here instead?)), are often worse than the Americans. But I can excuse some of them--they are often not only dealing with difficult topics, but trying to learn them in a language that is not their native tongue.
So, is the US education system better than those in many other countries? I'd have to say yes. From what I can see, however, that's not really saying much. US education definitely needs improvement, because we're no longer substantially better than everyone else. And if we're going to compete, we absolutely must have the best product available, because there's no way we can compete on price.
Re:I don't think so. (Score:1, Informative)
What I know about Indian Progrmamers (Score:3, Informative)
1. India (I believe TATA) is home to one of the first two SEI Level 5 software organizations - the other was the NASA shuttle group.
2. Programmers in India are more like $35 per hour rather than $5.
3. The time difference can actually be a benefit as customers can test during the day things that were coded durning the night before.
4. Anyone who has changes to go to code going to production in 30 minutes with a million lines should really review their processes and standards. That sounds like an invitation to failure.
5. Programmers got spoiled just like stock market bubble surfers during the 90's. It makes completely no sense to pay a VB or HTMl guy $80 per hour. I saw even higer rates than that.
To summarize: the Indians are getting the business because they are good programmers who have a good process and charge what the work is worth. The Indian rates have been rising steadily over the past few years and will equalize soon. So I don't really believe the Ameircan programmer is going the way of the Dodo bird.
Re:And Kerry said... (Score:3, Informative)
Yeah, saving is bad, everybody max out your credit cards right now! Come on. When you save, you make money available for investing in new businesses and expanding existing ones.
I was fairly miffed that Kerry did so little to explain how increasing the minimum wage spurs the economy.
Because it doesn't. Otherwise we could increase the minimum wage to $50/hour and all be rich.
We hear the supply-side view about the minimum wage killing jobs all the time, even though the same sorts of dire predicitions have been made for 70 years now without coming to pass.
European economies are much more Keynesian than the US, and have much higher unemployment.
Re:Well, according to the last debate... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Would you stop it about the H1Bs? (Score:1, Informative)
You may also be interested to learn that the law specifically prohibits the Department of Labor from doing anything more with a prevailing wage claim than to check to see if the form is filled out correctly. (8 U.S.C. 1182 (n)(1)(G)(i))
The application fee for an H-1B visa is a mere $130 and the forms are easy to fill out.
Way off (Score:3, Informative)
1998 == No imported workers
Badly off, and racist to boot. TiE (tiesv.org) was founded in the Valley in 1992. Non-tech Indians (physicians, for example) were here earlier.
Re:Would you stop it about the H1Bs? (Score:1, Informative)
1. At a previous job, they hired a H1B over a more or less equally comptent US citizen. Even had the US citizen known it, there isn't much he could have done as the company would make something up about how much better the H1B canidate was. Although after the experience, I don't know if the company would do it again (due to paperwork).
2. Two international graduate students in the same subfield in CS were hired as H-1B workers over me. It would be hard to argue that they were better qualified as they were average students and I was the top in the class. So what can I really do about it: Nothing.
As a final example, the graduate school I went to was biased toward accepting international students over US students. They did this so that they could get more work out of their students and pay them less. Hopefully, that's not a trend, but just an example of where it occurs.