A gauge of risk on Oracle debt "reached a three-year high in November," reports Bloomberg.

"And things are only going to get worse in 2026 unless the database giant is able to assuage investor anxiety about a massive artificial intelligence spending spree, according to Morgan Stanley." A funding gap, swelling balance sheet and obsolescence risk are just some of the hazards Oracle is facing, according to Lindsay Tyler and David Hamburger, credit analysts at the brokerage.

The cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default over the next five years rose to 1.25 percentage point a year on Tuesday, according to ICE Data Services. The price on the five-year credit default swaps is at risk of toppling a record set in 2008 as concerns over the company's borrowing binge to finance its AI ambitions continue to spur heavy hedging by banks and investors, they warned in a note Wednesday. The CDS could break through 1.5 percentage point in the near term and could approach 2 percentage points if communication around its financing strategy remains limited as the new year progresses, the analysts wrote. Oracle CDS hit a record 1.98 percentage point in 2008, ICE Data Services shows...

"Over the past two months, it has become more apparent that reported construction loans in the works, for sites where Oracle is the future tenant, may be an even greater driver of hedging of late and going forward," wrote the analysts... Concerns have also started to weigh on Oracle's stock, which the analysts said may incentivize management to outline a financing plan on the upcoming earnings call...
Thanks to Slashdot reader Bruce66423 for sharing the article.

OpenAI's data centre partners are on course to amass almost $100 billion in borrowing tied to the lossmaking start-up, as the ChatGPT maker benefits from a debt-fuelled spending spree without taking on financial risks itself. Financial Times: SoftBank, Oracle and CoreWeave have borrowed at least $30 billion to invest in the start-up or help build its data centres, according to FT analysis. Investment group Blue Owl Capital and computing infrastructure companies such as Crusoe also rely on deals with OpenAI to service about $28 billion in loans.

A group of banks is in talks to lend another $38 billion for Oracle and data centre builder Vantage to fund further sites for OpenAI, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is expected to be finalised in the coming weeks. OpenAI executives have said they plan to raise substantial debt to help pay for these contracts, but so far the financial burden has fallen to its counterparties and their lenders. "That's been kind of the strategy," said a senior OpenAI executive. "How does [OpenAI] leverage other people's balance sheets?"

OpenAI won't say who audits its books. The company, which projects to hit an ARR of $20 billion this year and is valued at $500 billion, has committed to spending about $1.4 trillion on data centers over the next decade. It accounts for roughly two-thirds of unfulfilled contracts at Oracle and two-fifths at CoreWeave. Microsoft alone holds around $375 billion in unfulfilled contracts with OpenAI.

Reuters reported the company may target a $1 trillion valuation for a potential IPO in coming years. Most companies at this scale use one of the Big Four accounting firms: Deloitte, EY, KPMG or PwC. OpenAI declined to comment to Financial Times. A person close to the organization told the publication the company has "an industry standard audit with one of the Big Four firms." The company's latest Form 990 filing lists Fontanello, Duffield, & Otake -- a small San Francisco accountancy firm -- as the paid preparer. The form does say an independent accountant audited the statements.

Michael Burry, last night: "Can anyone name [OpenAI's] auditor?"

An anonymous reader shares a report: It's too soon to be talking about the Curse of OpenAI, but we're going to anyway. Since September 10, when Oracle announced a $300 billion deal with the chatbot maker, its stock has shed $315 billion in market value.

OK, yes, it's a gross simplification to just look at market cap. But equivalents to Oracle shares are little changed over the same period (Nasdaq Composite, Microsoft, Dow Jones US Software Index), so the $15 billion loss figure [figure updated with stock price] is not entirely wrong. Oracle's "astonishing quarter" really has cost it nearly as much as one General Motors, or two Kraft Heinz.

OpenAI will pay Amazon $38 billion for computing power in a seven-year deal that marks the companies' first partnership. Amazon expects all of the computing capacity negotiated as part of the agreement will be available to OpenAI by the end of next year. The ChatGPT maker will train new AI models using Amazon's data centers and use them to process user queries.

The deal is small compared with OpenAI's $300 billion agreement with Oracle and its $250 billion commitment to Microsoft. OpenAI ended its exclusive cloud-computing partnership with Microsoft last month and has since signed almost $600 billion in new cloud commitments. Amazon Web Services is the industry's largest cloud provider, but Microsoft and Google have reported faster cloud-revenue growth in recent years after capturing new demand from AI customers.

OpenAI "hasn't yet turned a profit," notes Wall Street Journal business columnist Tim Higgins. "Its annual revenue is 2% of Amazon.com's sales.

"Its future is uncertain beyond the hope of ushering in a godlike artificial intelligence that might help cure cancer and transform work and life as we know it. Still, it is brimming with hope and excitement.

"But what if OpenAI fails?" There's real concern that through many complicated and murky tech deals aimed at bolstering OpenAI's finances, the startup has become too big to fail. Or, put another way, if the hype and hope around Chief Executive Sam Altman's vision of the AI future fails to materialize, it could create systemic risk to the part of the U.S. economy likely keeping us out of recession.

That's rarefied air, especially for a startup. Few worried about what would happen if Pets.com failed in the dot-com boom. We saw in 2008-09 with the bank rescues and the Chrysler and General Motors bailouts what happens in the U.S. when certain companies become too big to fail...

[A]fter a lengthy effort to reorganize itself, OpenAI announced moves that will allow it to have a simpler corporate structure. This will help it to raise money from private investors and, presumably, become a publicly traded company one day. Already, some are talking about how OpenAI might be the first trillion-dollar initial public offering... Nobody is saying OpenAI is dabbling in anything like liar loans or subprime mortgages. But the startup is engaging in complex deals with the key tech-industry pillars, the sorts of companies making the guts of the AI computing revolution, such as chips and Ethernet cables. Those companies, including Nvidia and Oracle, are partnering with OpenAI, which in turn is committing to make big purchases in coming years as part of its growth ambitions.

Supporters would argue it is just savvy dealmaking. A company like Nvidia, for example, is putting money into a market-making startup while OpenAI is using the lofty value of its private equity to acquire physical assets... They're rooting for OpenAI as a once-in-a-generational chance to unseat the winners of the last tech cycles. After all, for some, OpenAI is the next Apple, Facebook, Google and Tesla wrapped up in one. It is akin to a company with limitless potential to disrupt the smartphone market, create its own social-media network, replace the search engine, usher in a robot future and reshape nearly every business and industry.... To others, however, OpenAI is something akin to tulip mania, the harbinger of the Great Depression, or the next dot-com bubble. Or worse, they see, a jobs killer and mad scientist intent on making Frankenstein.

But that's counting on OpenAI's success.

OpenAI has committed to spend about $1.4 trillion on infrastructure so far, equating to roughly 30 gigawatts of data center capacity, CEO Sam Altman said on Tuesday. From a report: The statement helps clarify the many announcements the company has made with its chip, data center and financing partners. That total includes the already announced deals with AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle and other partners. That's just the starting point, Altman said. Over time, the company would like to have in place a technical and financial apparatus that would allow it to build a gigawatt of new capacity per week at a cost of around $20 billion per gigawatt.

"Nvidia is investing billions in and selling chips to OpenAI, which is also buying chips from and earning stock in AMD," writes SFGate. "AMD sells processors to Oracle, which is building data centers with OpenAI — which also gets data center work from CoreWeave. And that company is partially owned by, yes, Nvidia.

"Taken together, it's a doozy." There are other collaborations and rivalries and many other factors at play, but OpenAI is the many-tentacled octopus in the middle, spinning its achievement of ChatGPT into a blitz of speculative investments. "We are in a phase of the build-out where the entire industry's got to come together and everybody's going to do super well," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told the Wall Street Journal on Monday. "You'll see this on chips. You'll see this on data centers. You'll see this lower down the supply chain...."

Some worry that the more closely companies intertwine, the more susceptible they are to creating a bubble, or a market not actually supported by real consumer demand. "You don't have to be a skeptic about AI technology's promise in general to see this announcement as a troubling signal about how self-referential the entire space has become," Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients, per CNBC. "If NVDA has to provide the capital that becomes its revenues in order to maintain growth, the whole ecosystem may be unsustainable..."

Also, even with Nvidia's investment, AMD's shares and OpenAI's repeated fundraises, the ChatGPT-maker doesn't have the cash to meet all of these vast commitments. And if OpenAI's soaring projections about demand for AI computing don't bear out, there will be a lot of committed money — and a large share of the stock market — that would see its foundations topple.
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader mspohr for sharing the news.

OpenAI has signed about $1 trillion in deals this year for computing power to run its AI models, commitments that dwarf its revenue and raise questions about how it can fund them. From a report: Monday's deal with chipmaker AMD follows similar agreements with Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave, as OpenAI races to find the computing power it thinks it will need to run services such as ChatGPT.

The deals would give OpenAI access to more than 20 gigawatts of computing capacity, roughly equivalent to the power from 20 nuclear reactors, over the next decade. Each 1GW of AI computing capacity costs about $50bn to deploy in today's prices, according to estimates by OpenAI executives, making the total cost about $1tn. The deals have bound some of the world's biggest tech groups to OpenAI's ability to become a profitable business that can meet its increasingly steep financial obligations.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from TechCrunch: Google is bringing its AI coding agent Jules deeper into developer workflows with a new command-line interface and public API, allowing it to plug into terminals, CI/CD systems, and tools like Slack -- as competition intensifies among tech companies to own the future of software development and make coding more of an AI-assisted task.

Until now, Jules -- Google's asynchronous coding agent -- was only accessible via its website and GitHub. On Thursday, the company introduced Jules Tools, a command-line interface that brings Jules directly into the developer's terminal. The CLI lets developers interact with the agent using commands, streamlining workflows by eliminating the need to switch between the web interface and GitHub. It allows them to stay within their environment while delegating coding tasks and validating results. "We want to reduce context switching for developers as much as possible," Kathy Korevec, director of product at Google Labs, told TechCrunch.

Jules differs from Gemini CLI in that it focuses on "scoped," independent tasks rather than requiring iterative collaboration. Once a user approves a plan, Jules executes it autonomously, while the CLI needs more step-by-step guidance. Jules also has a public API for workflow and IDE integration, plus features like memory, a stacked diff viewer, PR comment handling, and image uploads -- capabilities not present in the CLI. Gemini CLI is limited to terminals and CI/CD pipelines and is better suited for exploratory, highly interactive use.

An anonymous reader shares a report: Google said hackers are sending extortion emails to an unspecified number of executives, claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle business applications. In a statement, Google said a group claiming affiliation with the ransomware gang cl0p, opens new tab was sending emails to "executives at numerous organizations claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle E-Business Suite." Google cautioned that it "does not currently have sufficient evidence to definitively assess the veracity of these claims."

Abu Dhabi's MGX (chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan) is set to take a 15% stake in TikTok's U.S. business after Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday night brokering a deal that puts the social media company under U.S. ownership. "Larry Ellison's Oracle, the private equity group Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi's MGX will control roughly 45% of TikTok US," adds The Guardian. "Overall, American companies are expected to control just over 65% of the company, with Trump also naming the personal computer pioneer Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch's Fox as other investors." From the report: "[TikTok US] will be majority-owned and controlled by United States persons and will no longer be controlled by any foreign adversary," Trump said. "We have American investors taking it over, running it [who are] highly sophisticated, including Larry Ellison. Great investors, the biggest. They don't get bigger. This is going to be American-operated all the way."

TikTok's Chinese owner, ByteDance, will retain a 19.9% stake in the US operation. China has not publicly made clear whether it will approve the deal, although Trump said that he "had a good talk" with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, who "gave us the go-ahead."

JD Vance, the US vice-president, said the deal valued TikTok US at $14 billion. "There was some resistance on the Chinese side," Vance said. "But the fundamental thing that we wanted to accomplish is that we wanted to keep TikTok operating but we wanted to make sure that protected Americans' data privacy as required by law." He added: "This deal really does mean that Americans can use TikTok, but actually use it with more confidence than in the past. Because their data is going to be secure and it's not going to be used as a propaganda weapon against our fellow citizens."

Longtime Slashdot reader hackingbear writes: President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday that he says will allow TikTok to continue operating in the United States in a way that meets national security concerns. Trump's order will enable an American-led of group of investors to "buy the app" (up to 80% ownership) from China's ByteDance, though the deal is not yet finalized and also requires China's approval. However, much about the deal is still unknown. So, did the U.S. successfully snatch TikTok from ByteDance? It is probably up to individual's interpretation.

As with any deals between U.S. and China, the devil is in the details. According Shen Yi, an internet influencer and a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, what the U.S. investor will eventually take control of is an entity known as TikTok U.S. Data Security Company ("USDS"), which is a subsidiary of TikTok U.S. and is exclusively responsible to handle data security in the U.S.. ByteDance will continue, through its U.S. subsidiary "ByteDance TikTok U.S. Company," to operate business and other related activities (such as e-commerce, advertising for brands, and cross-border commercial activities). It is important to stress that "Byte TikTok U.S. Company" remains 100% owned by ByteDance through its global TikTok subsidiary -- this arrangement has not changed. The TikTok algorithm remains the property of ByteDance, only licensed to USDS for use. This point was in fact explicitly clarified by a relevant official of China's Cyberspace Administration at the press conference following the Madrid talks.

After reaching the TikTok deal, Beijing and Washington are now selling it to their respective domestic audience, each highlighting the part of the deal that it can characterize as a win. Shen's details are not in conflict with the widely-reported account given by Karoline Leavitt, the White House Press Secretary, who emphasized "a new board with six American directors out of seven." Observers can also find the TikTok arrangement being very similar to that of Apple's iCloud operation in China being run by GCBD (AIPO Cloud (Guizhou) Technology Co. Ltd.) while Apple retain controls of the brand and business.

Longtime Slashdot reader whoever57 writes: Birmingham City Council, the largest such entity in Europe, has been declared effectively bankrupt. There are a couple of reasons for this, but one of them is a disastrous project to replace the city's income management system using Oracle. The cost of this has risen to $230 million, while the initial estimate was $24 million. There was a failed rollout of the new system earlier this year. "Original plans for the replacement of SAP with Oracle Fusion set aside a 19.965 million-euro budget for three years implementation until the end of the 2021 financial year," reports The Register. "Go-live date was later put back until April 2022 and the budget increased to 40 million euros. After the council realized it would need to reimplement all of Oracle, the budget for running the old system and introducing the new one increased to 131 million euros."

"In a hastily convened Audit Committee meeting this week, councilor heard how that date has now been put back until November, expressing their anger that the news hit the media before they were told." Testing failed with only a 73.3% pass rate and 10 severe deficits, "below the acceptance criteria of a 95 percent pass rate and zero severe deficits.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Reuters: OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank on Tuesday announced plans for five new artificial intelligence data centers in the United States to build out their ambitious Stargate project. [...] ChatGPT-maker OpenAI said on Tuesday it will open three new sites with Oracle in Shackelford County, Texas, Dona Ana County, New Mexico and an undisclosed site in the Midwest. Two more data center sites will be built in Lordstown, Ohio and Milam County, Texas by OpenAI, Japan's SoftBank and a SoftBank affiliate.

The new sites, the Oracle-OpenAI site expansion in Abilene, Texas, and the ongoing projects with CoreWeave will bring Stargate's total data center capacity to nearly 7 gigawatts and more than $400 billion in investment over the next three years, OpenAI said. The $500 billion project was intended to generate 10 gigawatts in total data center capacity. "AI can only fulfill its promise if we build the compute to power it," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement. The Tuesday's announcement, expected to create 25,000 onsite jobs, follows Nvidia saying on Monday that it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and supply data center chips. OpenAI and partners plan to use debt financing to lease chips for the Stargate project, people familiar with the matter said.

The Trump administration has struck a deal requiring TikTok's algorithm to be copied, retrained, and operated in the U.S. using only U.S. user data, with Oracle auditing the system and U.S. investors forming a joint venture to oversee it. The BBC reports: It comes after President Donald Trump said a deal to prevent the app's ban in the US, unless sold by its Chinese parent company ByteDance, had been reached with China's approval. White House officials claim the deal will be a win for the app's US users and citizens. President Trump is expected to sign an executive order later this week on the proposed deal, which will set out how it will comply with US national security demands.

The order will also outline a 120-day pause to the enforcement deadline to allow the deal to close. It is unclear whether the Chinese government has approved this agreement, or begun to take regulatory steps required to deliver it. However, the White House appears confident it has secured China's approval. Data belonging to the 170m users TikTok says it has in the US is already held on Oracle servers, under an existing arrangement called Project Texas. It saw US user data siphoned off due to concerns it could fall into the hands of the Chinese government.

A senior White House official said that under President Trump's deal, the company would take on a comprehensive role in securing the entirety of the app for American users. They said this would include auditing and inspecting the source code and recommendation system underpinning the app, and rebuilding it for US users using only US user data.

Microsoft and OpenAI have signed a non-binding deal to restructure their partnership, paving the way for OpenAI to shift into a conventional for-profit model and potentially go public. Reuters reports: Details on the new commercial arrangements were not disclosed, but the companies said they were working to finalize terms of a definitive agreement. [...] Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019 and another $10 billion at the beginning of 2023. Under their previous agreement, Microsoft had exclusive rights to sell OpenAI's software tools through its Azure cloud computing platform and had preferred access to the startup's technology.

Microsoft was once designated as OpenAI's sole compute provider, though it lessened its grip this year to allow OpenAI to pursue its own data center project, Stargate, including signing $300 billion worth of long-term contracts with Oracle, as well as another cloud deal with Google. As OpenAI's revenue grows into the billions, it is seeking a more conventional corporate structure and partnerships with additional cloud providers to expand sales and secure the computing capacity needed to meet demand. Microsoft, meanwhile, wants continued access to OpenAI's technology even if OpenAI declares its models have reached humanlike intelligence - a milestone that would end the current partnership under existing terms.

OpenAI said under current terms, its nonprofit arm will receive more than $100 billion -- about 20% of the $500 billion valuation it is seeking in private markets -- making it one of the most well-funded nonprofits, according to a memo from Bret Taylor, chairman of OpenAI's current nonprofit board. The companies did not disclose how much of OpenAI Microsoft will own, nor whether Microsoft will retain exclusive access to OpenAI's latest models and technology. Regulatory hurdles remain for OpenAI, as attorneys general in California and Delaware need to approve OpenAI's new structure. The company hopes to complete the conversion by year's end, or risk losing billions in funding tied to that timeline.

Amid yesterday's news of Oracle's soaring stock, which propelled founder Larry Ellison to the top of the world's richest list, the Wall Street Journal reported that the cloud giant and OpenAI have struck one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed. Under the deal, OpenAI will purchase $300 billion worth of compute power from Oracle over roughly five years, with purchases beginning in 2027.

"This move away from Microsoft was timed with OpenAI's involvement with the Stargate Project, in which OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle have committed to invest $500 billion into domestic data center projects over the next four years," notes TechCrunch.

OpenAI also recently signed a cloud deal with Google. "The deal ... underscores the fact that the two are willing to overlook heavy competition between them to meet the massive computing demands," wrote analyst in Reuter's report.

Oracle shares had their best day since 1992, skyrocketing 36% and adding $244 billion in market value as surging AI-driven cloud demand pushed the company toward a $1 trillion valuation. The surge boosted founder Larry Ellison's fortune by $100 billion, making him the new world's wealthiest person. CNBC reports: The company said Tuesday after the bell that it has $455 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 359% from a year earlier. "This is a very historic kind of print right here from Oracle with this backlog," Ben Reitzes, technology research head at Melius Research, told CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" on Tuesday. "The Street was looking for about $180 billion in RPO and they're talking about a number that is a multiple of that. That is astounding."

Oracle now sees $18 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue in fiscal 2026, with the company calling for the annual sum to reach $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Other analysts were left "blown away" and "in shock." D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria called it "absolutely staggering on CNBC's "Fast Money." Wells Fargo analysts said it was a "momentous confirmation" of the AI trade.

Oracle's cloud revenue projections overshadowed an otherwise lackluster fiscal first-quarter report in which the company missed expectations on the top and bottom lines. The company had earnings of an adjusted $1.47 per share for the quarter, just below the $1.48 per share expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue for the first quarter came in at $14.93 billion, missing the $15.04 billion expected.

An Associated Press investigation based on tens of thousands of leaked documents revealed Tuesday that American technology companies designed and built core components of China's surveillance apparatus over the past 25 years, selling billions of dollars in equipment to Chinese police and government agencies despite warnings about human rights abuses.

IBM partnered with Chinese defense contractor Huadi in 2009 to develop predictive policing systems for the "Golden Shield" project, AP reports, citing classified government blueprints. The technology enabled mass detentions in Xinjiang, where administrators assigned 100-point risk scores to Uyghurs with deductions for growing beards or being aged 15-55. Dell promoted a laptop with "all-race recognition" capabilities on its WeChat account in 2019. Thermo Fisher Scientific marketed DNA kits as "designed" for ethnic minorities including Uyghurs and Tibetans until August 2024.

Oracle, Microsoft, HP, Cisco, Intel, NVIDIA, and VMware sold geographic mapping software, facial recognition systems, and cloud infrastructure to Chinese police through the 2010s. The surveillance network tracks "key persons" whose movements are restricted and monitored, with one estimate suggesting 55,000 to 110,000 people were placed under residential surveillance in the past decade. China now has more surveillance cameras than the rest of the world combined.