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Psychologist Beating Math Nerds in Race to Netflix Prize

Journal written by s1d (1185389) and posted by Zonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 11:19 PM
from the must-calculate-harder dept.
s1d writes "An almost-anonymous British psychologist named Gavin Potter has suddenly risen to the top of the Netflix prize charts. With his very first attempt, he got a score which took the BellKor team seven months to reach. Currently at a score of 8.07, he has only five teams ahead of him now in the race for the ultimate Netflix algorithm. 'Potter says his anonymity is mostly accidental. He started that way and didn't come out into the open until after Wired found him. "I guess I didn't think it was worth putting up a link until I had got somewhere," he says, adding that he'd been seriously posting under the name of his venture capital and consulting firm, Mathematical Capital, for two months before launching "Just a guy." When he started competing, he posted to his blog: "Decided to take the Netflix Prize seriously. Looks kind of fun. Not sure where I will get to as I am not an academic or a mathematician. However, being an unemployed psychologist I do have a bit of time."'"
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  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:22PM (#22645744)
    5th place is not winning. Are you guys Ron Paul supporters too?
      • by rcw-home (122017) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @01:24AM (#22646406)

        Welcome to your therapy session.

        Well, before everyone gets all in a tizzy,

        Surely not everyone?

        let me just say that I'm already on the case to return the favor.

        Can you elaborate on that?

        As a mathematician and computer scientist, I'm working on a computer program using some pretty heavy-lifting math to allow people to psychoanalyze themselves.

        Why do you mention computers?

        I call it the ELIte analyZing mAchine, or ELIZA for short.

        Why do you mention computers?

        How does that make you feel, Mr. Psychologist Person?

        Does that question interest you?

  • Domain Knowledge (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:27PM (#22645772)
    It's called domain knowledge people. It helps being a psychologist when you're write a program reacting to people's behavior. If programmers knew how to do that, they would get laid more.
      • by wasted (94866) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @12:25AM (#22646116)

        There's a strong social obligation to love sex, just like there's a strong social obligation to hate work. A lot of people love their work and couldn't be bothered wasting their time on mating rituals.. then all the brainless breeders call them "losers" because they've made two choices that fly in the face of social pressure.

        Like they really had a choice...
  • What's the point? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by causality (777677) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:28PM (#22645782)
    Is there some merit to this story other than "your sterotypes can be wrong", which is itself cliche enough to be considered a stereotype in its own right? I like Henry David Thoreau's explanation of such trivia:

    And I am sure that I never read any memorable news in a newspaper. If we read of one man robbed, or murdered, or killed by accident, or one house burned, or one vessel wrecked, or one steamboat blown up, or one cow run over on the Western Railroad, or one mad dog killed, or one lot of grasshoppers in the winter -- we never need read of another. One is enough. If you are acquainted with the principle, what do you care for a myriad instances and applications? To a philosopher all news, as it is called, is gossip, and they who edit and read it are old women over their tea. Yet not a few are greedy after this gossip. There was such a rush, as I hear, the other day at one of the offices to learn the foreign news by the last arrival, that several large squares of plate glass belonging to the establishment were broken by the pressure -- news which I seriously think a ready wit might write a twelve-month, or twelve years, beforehand with sufficient accuracy.


    And yes, I have karma to burn. Yes I do.
      • by besalope (1186101) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @01:46AM (#22646518)

        Right. Unless it's your brother that was robbed, your mother's house that burned, your life savings tied up in the boat that sank, your cow that was run down, or your new neighbor's rabid dog that needs killing.
        Meh, that just sounds like the making of a country music hit.
  • Average psychologist (Score:5, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:31PM (#22645808)

    that had an undergraduate degree in psychology, a masters degree in operations research [wikipedia.org] that after being well employed for a number of years -- "In 2006, he left his job at IBM to explore the idea of starting a PhD in machine learning, a field in which he has no formal training. When he read about the Netflix Prize, he decided to give it a shot -- what better way to find out just how serious about the topic he really was?"

  • Misleading summary (Score:5, Informative)

    by Zen Programmer (518532) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:40PM (#22645856)
    The summary makes 2 references to Gavin Potter being a psychologist, but it ignores the part of the article that notes he has a master's degree in operations research. This is very much an OR problem. Still, it is impressive that he has been able to do as well as he has considering his competition. Good luck to him!
  • by oceaniv (1243854) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:41PM (#22645866)
    The topic is incredibly fascinating. And just a thought, up to 5 centuries ago "scientists" were incredibly versatile people, with mastery over a few fields at a time... A lot of people argue that this was out of necessity, but could the versatility have been important development of multiple renaissances (In Greece, East/West Asia, and Europe)? And could the bottleneck specialization of fields that has occurred in the past three centuries simply be period of transition/stifling new ways of thinking? Could the emergence interdisciplinary experts lead to another 'renaissance' of sorts?
    • I think so [projectpolymath.org].
    • See, I hate this current mode of profession.

      I work for a small company. My current job isn't stable, and doesn't pay well, so I'm taking an IT course so I can land a (hopefully) stable job/career.

      However... in my current job I wear all kinds of hats. Server's down? I'll fix it. Marketing materials need to be designed? I'll do it. Proposal needs to be edited? I'm there. Computer needs more RAM? I'll install it. Photo of product needs to be masked-out? Done. Need to do some research? I'll get on it.

      The kind of job I'm being trained for... I'll be stuck on the straight and narrow, handling one sort of task. When companies want an IT guy, they want an IT guy. I don't know how I'll be able to handle that. I LIKE having different responsibilities. I don't want to be one guy on an org chart with a specified duty.

      Blah. I really went on a tangent there...
      • by mattOzan (165392) < vispusloNO@SPAMmattozan.net> on Wednesday March 05 2008, @12:37AM (#22646176) Homepage
        I like being jack-of-all-trades too. But I'm finding that one must tread very carefully on this path.

        If you aren't careful, you end up being the fall guy for a widening array of mishaps.

        For instance, you help set up the video projector a couple of times for presentations. Then during the next presentation the projector fails. In some eyes it will be your fault, because you're now the "PowerPoint Guy." Nevermind that the bulb was past its recommended use hours, or that the presenter forgot his VGA dongle, or whatever.

        It seems like if I want to come out as the go-to guy for some area of tech, I'd damn well better get up to pro-level speed really quick. Because soon I'm going to have to be mitigating crises and solving complex problems that before were just chalked up to "well, that thing's always been a problem." Yeah, now it is *your* problem!
    • by TiggertheMad (556308) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @01:26AM (#22646420) Homepage Journal
      Could the emergence interdisciplinary experts lead to another 'renaissance' of sorts?

      Oh, I don't know. If only we had a art history & statistics dual major to figure it out...
      • Re:Uh, no... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 05 2008, @12:55AM (#22646268)
        What a bunch of drivel. Just because their level of knowledge isn't what we have today, doesn't make it any "easier." Do you have any idea at all, or can you even comprehend, the kind of mathematics that were employed back in the day to solve anything? Take a look at the Principia for example. The geometry is insane. I'm a graduate student in Physics and I can't really follow his proofs.

        Furthermore, because early scientists did not have as much to build on, that makes it all the more difficult. Where was Faraday to get his inspiration on lines of force? What lead Maxwell in the right direction to unifying light with electromagnetism?

        It's great that 3rd graders know about electric circuits. That's the point of scientific progress. That doesn't make the original task trivial in any sense.

        In other words, I hate you.
      • by BorgCopyeditor (590345) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @01:25AM (#22646418)
        OK, how do you solve a cubic? Or grind the lenses for a telescope? Or build a water pump? How do you dress a head wound? Or isolate pure gases? Or calibrate a thermometer?

        If you know how to do all those things, good for you. My point is that a secondary school education in "science" does not by itself provide one with the same understanding as the great scientists who first among all others figured out how to do each of these things.
  • Umm.... (Score:5, Informative)

    He might be a psychologist, but his venture firm is named Mathematical Captital [mathematicalcapital.com], after all. His partners appear to have advanced degrees involving mathematics.
  • Psychologist? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Otter (3800) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:43PM (#22645890) Journal
    I don't understand why Wired insists on playing along with Potter's pretense of being an "unemployed psychologist". He's a PhD candidate in machine learning, has a masters in operations research, is ex-IBM and Pricewaterhouse, runs a VC firm -- he has plenty of quantitative and computational training and experience, probably more than most of the contestants.
  • by GregPK (991973) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:47PM (#22645912)
    My extensive retail experience says people like to shop by the following methods. Ratings, Genre, Alphabet.

    So, if I was to setup a movie viewing for them. I'd setup something along the lines of a Genre, rating(R,PG-13,G), Alphabet.

    It's kind of a takeoff on my video game organization method that increases sales of video games by 30 percent. I called it ABSRG short for Alphabetize By Section(4 foot section), Rating(M on top T in the middle and E towards the bottom.), Genre(Sports, driving, shoot em up). Please note, this cannot be patented, I already let it go out for more than a year(Started in 1998)and I have the pictures and time notes to prove it.
  • Free Idea (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Speare (84249) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @12:25AM (#22646120) Homepage

    Okay, I'm not trying for this prize, but there's one thing about Netflix "recommendations" that bugs me so I'm throwing out this complete freebie of an idea. If it helps someone get a 0.001% improvement to add this ONE little additional check, great.

    I am learning Japanese. I have been watching several hundred Japanese-language movies for the past couple years. I don't watch movies in Greek, Spanish, Turkish, Farsi, Italian, Russian, German, or Hebrew. I did watch Amelie four years ago but that doesn't mean I love French movies. Most of my recommendations are for foreign films, but only a small fraction of those recommendations are for Japanese movies.

    Apparently, Netflix doesn't have a column in their database saying WHAT language a movie uses principally, it just has a flag saying it is not English. It's the only explanation I can see for not checking for such a strong correlation. I admit, I might not be sharing the experience of the most common movie-renting drone in the bunch, but I doubt I'm the only person who has such a lopsided taste in movies. If the language (or alternate soundtrack languages) ARE known in the database, please see if the renter has a bias for movies in a particular language.

  • by robhiller (757839) on Wednesday March 05 2008, @05:19AM (#22647252)
    Am I the only one that finds the phrase 'An almost-anonymous British psychologist named Gavin Potter' faintly ridiculous?
    • That's true (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Crazy Taco (1083423) on Tuesday March 04 2008, @11:56PM (#22645950)

      Very few psych majors do psych professional. I have a BA from U. of Houston, which I have used to do tech support and sales for a software company, and developed my own FPS as a solo project.

      I've also found this to be true. Lol, I actually knew people in college that did nothing but program computers in their spare time, and took psych because it was easy, wouldn't distract them and gave them more time to do the programming they wanted. They didn't ever expect to practice psych.