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2007 Java Predictions 284

Posted by kdawson
from the steaming-mug-of-prognostication dept.
jg21 writes "Java Developer's Journal has published the results of its end-of-year poll of various Internet technology players, from its own internal editors to industry high-ups like the founder of Apress, Gary Cornell, and including too the thoughts of professor Tony Wasserman of Carnegie Mellon West. Participants were asked to foretell what they saw happening in 2007. Among the predictions — Cornell: 'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#'; Wasserman: 'The use of the GPL 2 for open-sourcing Java will inhibit the completion and acceptance of the GPL 3 proposal'; and Rails creator David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'"
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2007 Java Predictions

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  • Java's dead! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Rik Sweeney (471717) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:25AM (#17276586) Homepage
    I read this on a messageboard years ago, it still makes me laugh to this day:

    No one uses Java anymore, it's all flash these days.
    • by mustafap (452510)
      Java dead? Tell developers who use Eclipse that.
      • by drerwk (695572) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:05AM (#17276798) Homepage
        Didn't have you coffee yet this morning?
        The parent makes a living programming J2EE. He might even use Eclipse.
        I think for many folks Java is used to write software that does not see the front of a web page.
        In fact I have not used Java on the client side since about '98. But I write far more Java now than I did back then. I hope that the work Ethan Nicholas [java.net] is doing to will help, but frankly Flash works fine for many web pages. And as long as I don't have to write the Flash code I'm fine with that. Is it still programming via dialog box? Can I use svn with my Flash code these days? I also hear AJAX is popular and effective for client side work. Anyway, Java is not likely to die anytime soon.
        • And as long as I don't have to write the Flash code I'm fine with that. Is it still programming via dialog box? Can I use svn with my Flash code these days?
          Actually programming in Flash (the program) is no longer a pain worse than death but still no fun, however, programming flash applications with Flex is beautiful, especially with all the features added in Flex 2. Honestly, I love Flex to death and I think you'll see a lot more people using it in coming years.
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Directrix1 (157787)
          I am personally really excited about Java becoming free. I quit using it a few years ago because of Stallman's The Java Trap (that and the dark side of easy unmaintainable web development in PHP drew me in... stupid me). I'm currently reevaluating Java right now and Python is really shaping up for the server side too. But back to the point, people forget that there is a MASSIVE collection of libraries out there for Java. And I mean massive. Check apache.org just for a little taste.
        • That is a shame since I am a fan of swing.

          The latest versions of java combined with newer hardware run swing apps quite nicely and responsively. I can write apps with netbeans using swing very quickly and its sweet.
      • by Maxo-Texas (864189) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @02:27PM (#17278452)
        Java is great for writing business rules and the back end and for industrial enterprise level scalable code.

        Other things are better for the front end these days. No big deal.

        Front ends change a lot. Business rules tend to be stable. Do you really want to redevelop all your business rule every 3 to 5 years? With java, you write it once and for the foreseeable future don't have to rewrite it. But java is a bit heavy for fast moving stuff.
    • by msobkow (48369) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @11:35AM (#17277284) Homepage Journal
      Cornell: 'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#';

      Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java. With such insightful educators, it is no wonder some of the newer computer science students don't have an adequate background in abstraction and conceptualization of systems.

      • by msobkow (48369) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @12:08PM (#17277508) Homepage Journal

        Out of all the interviews I did this year, only one shop wanted .Net services, and they wanted VB, not C#. Half a dozen shops about the same size were sticking with Java. Half a dozen shops several times the size were also sticking with Java.

        I think it's a lot easier to add unsigned types to Java than it is to switch to a new framework.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by crucini (98210)
        Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java

        What makes you think Cornell doesn't realize that? Did you think the quoted statement called C# a dynamic language? It didn't.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward
        Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java.

        What makes you think that realising that stands in the way of it becoming more popular?
      • Exactly ... and C# is not even dynamic (like Ruby and Python), rofl. Especialy if the term "dynamic typed" wold be far more appropriated then just saying "dynamic".

        angel'o'sphere
      • I know demand for C# is out there- some of our C# programmers have left for other opportunities since our shop is java centric.

        Java has never completely negated a prior version of the language yet (as the move from vb6 to .net did).

        There is no promise from Microsoft that when they introduce C& that they will drop support for C# and instantly make it a dead language and leave all the C# programmers holding the bag.

    • Shh! (Score:3, Funny)

      I read this on a messageboard years ago, it still makes me laugh to this day.

      Yup, Gnutella, Azureus and Eclipse users (amongst others) running these programs on Linux, Windows, MacOS X, etc will be scratching their head wondering what voodoo their programs are coded in (it has to be voodoo if Java is dead).

      Ah well, people living in their ivory tower will always assume the alteratives are dead.
  • by KruiserX (1008455) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:26AM (#17276592)
    When the the Boston Globe was asked about the decline of JAVA to dynamic languages their reply was to "stop using JAVA"
    • by IdahoEv (195056) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @02:37PM (#17278508) Homepage
      The entire IT reporting industry, and Slashdot. Writes about languages these days as if there is only one task in the world: web apps whereby users insert and retrieve basic data to/from a database. Yeah, for those apps you bet Java is losing ground to modern interpreted languages.

      But there are a thousand other types of projects for which other environments might excel.

      One of my current projects is a desktop app that does real-time signal processing on a live microphone feed, and produces a full-screen GUI with output of the signal that updates at 30+ FPS. Between the signal processing and graphics, it needs to do some hundreds of megaflops, effective - interpreted languages are a couple of orders of magnitude slower doing raw math. Java is pushing the low end of speed for this app.

      At the same time, we want the benefit of a multiplatform release, because the project is for the education and music professional markets - there are an awful lot of macs among our target market, and our competitors are PC-only. Java has actually come through on the write-once-run-anywhere promise for us, straight down to the live audio input. We're just 2 developers - how much longer would it have taken us to have to port C++ between different platforms' APIs? Way too long. And we can't even consider platform-specific environments like C# or ObjectiveC/Cocoa.

      Use the right tool for the right job. There are times when Ruby's the right tool - and times when it ain't. There are plenty of niches still where nothing else can remotely fill Java's shoes.
      • There are C++ multi-platform toolkits: at least Qt and wxWidgets are of professional quality. Audacity is written with wxWidgets and runs in Windows, Linux and Mac.

        I don't object about using Java in your project, it's a sensible decision in a team with only two programmers.

        However to say that there are no alternatives is very short sighted. It's better to say that there are alternatives but you have choosen the best one for your programming team.

        Also keep in mind that creating a C++ object in the stack is
  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:34AM (#17276636)
    David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'

    I guess we can say the same about those snobby pre-teen emo kids using the Mac.
    • If I had mod points, you would have them all
  • Umm...what stigma? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Aphrika (756248) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:50AM (#17276702)
    'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'
    Am I missing something here, I was unaware that there was a stigma attached to being a web programmer using Windows. Right tools for the job, whether it's Ruby on Rails or not I'm afraid. Last project was PHP on Apache and MySQL, current project is ASP.NET and SQL Server 2005. My next project will be PHP on Windows using MySQL and IIS. I do what's best for my clients, not what's flavour of the month.

    Attaching a stigma to certain platforms or technologies for certain jobs is just stupid and childish. Are we going to start lambasting publishers that don't use Macs next, or Linux users that do accounting on their machines? Bizarre...
    • by brokeninside (34168) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:58AM (#17276752)
      Hansson's prediction was that Apple will become the development platform of choice for techies and, consequently, other developers will laugh at any web devs saddled with using a Windows based laptop.
    • As you say, use the right tool for the job. If you have a Linux, AIX, Windows, Solaris, or other box, the odds are it runs Java and Eclipse.

      My own pet project work has moved from platform to platform for a decade or so, shifting from Borland JBuilder to Sun's tools and eventually Eclipse. Java 1.0-1.5 have always been true to the concept of platform neutrality.

      GPLv2 is not a detractor. If Oracle can mandate that the web users have to be counted and the number of web sessions limited, then clearly th

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by JohnFluxx (413620)
      Hi,
          A serious question - when is using SQL server the right tool for any job? Or was it because that's what the client wanted/knew?
      • by Aphrika (756248) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @12:55PM (#17277828)
        Interesting. Well firstly I'd like to say that I don't consider myself a fanboy of any particular database/OS/web server/development product, I work to solve problems, not increase/decrease some software/hardware company's market share.

        In most cases, SQL Server is right becasue a company has in-house SQL Server Admins and deploying another database platform is a waste on company resources. That would entail another complete platform and maintenance/admin skillset. In many cases companies don't want this, which makes perfect sense as there's no point having a disparate bunch of technologies that you need to manage. If I was ever deploying a .NET solution, SQL Server 2000/2005 is also what I'd recommend as it talks to .NET code much more effectively than MySQL or other alternatives. Performance of SQL Server against MySQL with .NET code is way better to the extent that I wouldn't recommend MySQL in that situation, regardless of deployment cost. As you work with various platforms, technologies and languages, you tend to fit the ones which fit together best - that's something that comes with experience. You also have to look at an outfit before you start on a new database project. If a company is using a lot of Windows boxes, has sysadmins who are Windows-based, then chances are that they'll be much more at home doing admin of a SQL Server on a Windows platform. In an ideal world, I'd all roll out what I personally love best. In a business world (the real world) I roll out what's best long term for the client, and that's looking at return on investments, total costs of ownership and what they already have in place. There's no point in rolling a shiny new Windows 2003 server into an Oracle datacenter and asking them to admin it. These are all factors that'll affect what I'm recommending/using/deploying.

        Personally speaking, I've never had any issus with any SQL Server versions in either performance, scaling or security. A well installed, maintained and managed setup will work really well and be considerably cheaper than alternatives such as Oracle. While MySQL may be cheaper, it's not as fully featured as SQL Server. Off the top of my head, I reckon I've dealt with around 40 or 50 SQL Server setups since version 6.5 and I don't have a bad word to say about them - never had an intrusion, never had database corruption, havce ported databases between machines with no problems, run them on VMware etc. etc. It's certainly one of Microsoft's better technology platforms and though many people would like me to, I can't really fault it. Same goes for MySQL - I like it and I use it where necessary and relevant, i.e. conversely, I'd tend to roll out MySQL in a Linux-house if I were developing PHP on Apache for instance. As I said earlier, you find technologies fit together through experience.

        Although as with anything out there, chances are someone's had some really bad experiences with it and couldn't recommend it though personal experiences, YMMV.

        Hope that answers your question though.
        • by JohnFluxx (413620)
          Thanks!

          I get most of your points (and reluctantly agree), but not sure whether the performance part is legitimate - it seems unlikely that the marshaling interface is going to have any significant impact.
        • by killjoe (766577)
          SQL server has crappy error messages. It's really hard to debug when something goes wrong. If I get another "multiple step process has caused an error" message I am going to scream.

          Aside from that SQL server promotes vendor lock (so does .NET). MS wants you to use the full MS stack. .NET, windows, SQL server, and VB or C#. If you veer outside of their stack with any of their elements you suffer serious pain.

          If you don't mind getting your chain yanked by your vendor once in a while by all means use it.
    • by canuck57 (662392)

      Am I missing something here, I was unaware that there was a stigma attached to being a web programmer using Windows.

      I think the stigma comes from - "I clicked on Front Page, created a web page - now I am a senior web developer. What is Apache, an Indian?"

      I am sorry, I deal with web developers where I work, xNIX and Microsoft. I just finished an argument with a Microsoft web developer of why DNS could not change the port numbers in a URL. I get this all the time. Some of these developers are dumb as nai

      • by Kymermosst (33885)
        I am sorry, I deal with web developers where I work, xNIX and Microsoft. I just finished an argument with a Microsoft web developer of why DNS could not change the port numbers in a URL. I get this all the time. Some of these developers are dumb as nails.

        You so need one of these [f5.com]. I've been able to pull miracles using Big-IPs (mainly fixing the mistakes of our Windows-loving web developers and product teams). If you've got it fronting all of your services, you can even change the port numbers in your URLs.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by SageMusings (463344)
        My experience has revealed a lot of Linux web developers are "learn PHP in 21 days" types. We weed you guys out at interviews all the time.

        it isn't to say there are not Linux web developers out there that are not sharp as a tack, but by average --- there is a clear difference.
    • by SQLz (564901)
      I can't even think of a instance where Windows would be "the right tool for the right job".
    • I suppose the Unix administrators are the ones who cringe on supporting a Microsoft based website. Apache has a ton of mods and scripting is lightyears ahead of Windows. Clustering, uptime, security, and patchability still reign king on Solaris and Linux as a second. The powershell using .NET framework is nice and I want to learn it but it still has awhile ago to catch up to unix using pipes and the gnu cli tools.

      Development is one aspect and maintance is another. Its true MS has nice development tools and
    • by killjoe (766577)
      "Attaching a stigma to certain platforms or technologies for certain jobs is just stupid and childish."

      And yet it still happens. The windows geek attack a stigma to linux users are being unwashed communist hippies and the linux users attach a stigma to windows geeks are brainless button pushers and screen painters.

      That's reality and I certainly don't see it going away any time soon.

      Like it or not there is a certain amount of l33tness in having a job where you can use a mac and cool platforms like ROR. It go
  • by E++99 (880734) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @09:58AM (#17276762) Homepage
    ...by Richard Monson-Haefel
    Award-Winning Author & Senior Analyst, Burton Group

    1. Jonathan Schwartz open-sources Sun Microsystems.
    In a move that will surprise everyone Sun Microsystems will announce that it will open source its entire company. Sales, marketing, finance, and even operations will be open to the community for anyone to contribute.

    2. Apple computer announces the iPod Uno.
    The size of a match stick with no screen or controls, the iPod Uno plays one song in a constant loop. Despite its limited capabilities, the tiny device becomes an instant hit and a cultural icon.

    3. In what is heralded as the seminal article on the subject, Tim Berners-Lee mentions "IT2"
    Overnight the term morphs into "IT 2.0," spawning thousands of blog entries and press articles, a dozen books, five conferences, and millions of dollars in venture capital. It turns out that the original article, incomprehensible to most readers, was actually another attempt to explain the Semantic Web and the IT2 reference was just a typo.

    4. Microsoft will create the first CMO (Chief Marketing Officer) position.
    The new CMO will immediately change his own title to Chief Command & Control of Packaging Officer (C3PO) and then announce that Vista will be delayed and renamed Microsoft Virtualization Application Program Operating system Reloaded (Microsoft VAPOR).

    ...funniest stuff I've read in a very long time.



    • 3. In what is heralded as the seminal article on the subject, Tim Berners-Lee mentions "IT2"


      I don't think TBL would be so buzzwordy. Tim O'Reilly on the other hand...
    • by simpl3x (238301)
      Have you ever heard of the Buddha Box?
  • Crystal Ball time... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by starseeker (141897) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:02AM (#17276776) Homepage
    OK, we all know how useful and accurate these predictions tend to be, but since it's that time of year...

    The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#.

    That depends on what market we are talking about. Open sourcing Java will make a MASSIVE difference in terms of Java's appeal to the open source development community. Whether this translates to more Java software or not I don't know, but there are already some very good programs in Java that are open source (Jedit http://jedit.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net], Jabref http://jabref.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] and JaxoDraw http://jaxodraw.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] come readily to mind). Seamless integration with Linux distributions has the potential to make it a much more popular language, and may also result in usability improvements to the environment itself.

    Other languages will grow of course, but I would personally be surprised if Java fades too much except perhaps as the "new toy". There is a LOT of Java code out there, and it is doing important work.

    The use of the GPL 2 for open-sourcing Java will inhibit the completion and acceptance of the GPL 3 proposal.

    I don't understand this. GPL3 will go forward as it is going forward now, with much discussion - I can't imagine any issues Java would raise that aren't already being raised. Anybody with more knowledge of the process and Java know what he's saying here?

    Now, just to get into the swing of things, my predictions:

    a) Every major Linux distribution will deploy Sun's JRE as a core system component soon after a full open source release is made. Allow six months to replace any pieces that could not be released due to copyright/license issues. The Sun JDK will also see large scale integration.

    b) Open source software written in Java that already exists will get a boost in interest and visibility, as it is no longer using a language that is non-free.

    c) Graphics performance and native appearance of widgets will be a major focus of interest and effort, possibly resulting in Java applications becoming better integrated visually with the desktop. This may actually cost Java a bit in terms of name recognition, as end users will see less visual evidence of the difference between Java and other languages (I know, I know - that's not what makes Java different, but it's what can be SEEN that counts.)

    d) As Linux distributions integrate and include Java by default, it will increase the appeal of both Java and Linux on the server side.

    And one that I would like to see proven wrong:

    e) No major OEM computer maker will add the Sun JRE as a default part of their desktop, despite it being released as GPL.
    • by oohshiny (998054)

      That depends on what market we are talking about. Open sourcing Java will make a MASSIVE difference in terms of Java's appeal to the open source development community.

      No, it will merely turn the unacceptable into the unpalatable.

      d) As Linux distributions integrate and include Java by default, it will increase the appeal of both Java and Linux on the server side.

      Yes, that is likely to happen: Linux distributions will ship with more Java server-side stuff. Nevertheless, PHP-based server apps are still going

    • by LauraW (662560)

      b) Open source software written in Java that already exists will get a boost in interest and visibility, as it is no longer using a language that is non-free.

      I don't see this making a big difference. Most of the open-source Java software I've seen is aimed at accomplishing a particular task in Java, so the people who would consider using it have already bought in to Java itself. I'm thinking mostly of web development frameworks like Hibernate [hibernate.org], Struts [slashdot.org], and Webwork [opensymphony.com]. The people using them have already made the decision to do server-side Java; the fact that it's now open-source is nice but not really that big a deal. Maybe I'm biased because I mostly do serve

    • Furthermore, even if "[Java's use declines] in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#", that would only be true of Java-as-a-language, not Java-as-a-platform. JRuby and JPython, for example, may increase in use, particularly since Java is/will soon be open-sourced. If there are benefits to running those two languages on the Java platform (and there may be: speed/stability, and perhaps access to Java libraries), there is no reason why not to.
    • by metamatic (202216)
      e) No major OEM computer maker will add the Sun JRE as a default part of their desktop, despite it being released as GPL.

      I assume you mean that nobody will add it merely because it is now GPL; there are already major OEM computer makers shipping the JRE by default.

  • Trollpost (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Elektroschock (659467) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:03AM (#17276786)
    Is is an ivory tower troll. In fact almost no one uses ruby. It may be hot among Nerds and its growing. Java went into the enterprises in the 90th as Cobol did before. C++ was less usable for enterprises. Java looked good and fostered plattform independency, helped to increase interoperability. "Java to go" is as off-topic as the prediction that FreeBSD would take over Linux. Ruby and Python are upcoming languages. Growing but you have to wait for another five years. Open Source Java will mean all Linux systems will ship free Java. Java will get a working GNU compiler native compilation. Java will be the trusted alternative to -- arrrgh patents --- Mono for enterprise applications. SUN knew exactly why they did it. Linux will become a strong Java plattform and with Linux on so many servers that will give Java and Linux a boost.
  • My own predictions (Score:5, Insightful)

    by mgkimsal2 (200677) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:05AM (#17276804) Homepage
    In no particular order:

    Java as Open Source will help in creating smaller versions - perhaps very lightweight browser-plugins - optimized for particular use (media, number crunching, etc.). These browser plugins will help revive Java as a thin-client/web2.0 (3.0?) player in browser-based apps, possibly even making some small inroads against Flash. The 'apollo' project from Adobe may put the kibosh on this, but the increased-eyeballs angle will likely prevent a complete obliteration from happening to desktop Java.

    Java will become even faster. Although this has happened in 2006, with the release of Java 6, the full impact will be a refitting of the niche Java apps out there to work specifically with Java 6 and the speed improvements there. This will give some Java some good PR points and case studies with the 'Java is slow' crowd (which I'm definately a member of [fosterburgess.com]).

    (As I think one of the panelists in the article said) - there will be a greater acceptance of dynamic languages (ruby/php/python/etc) in Java shops, as Java6's support for dynamic languages (JSR 223 I think [jcp.org]) will help increase productivity for Java devs willing to think outside their javaBox.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by hey! (33014)
      Speaking of smaller, what about J2ME?

      Java is for many practical purposes an operating system. What mobile java needs is a packaging system like Debian's or BSD's.

      If there were a packaging system, then your (non-trivial) mobile application could reach many more devices. J2ME only exists as a number of proprietary implementations with incompatible libraries, and hard to obtain unless it is bundled with your device. They all pass compliance tests, but the bare minimum API is so bare that they all add some
    • Do you know if you have to recompile your java apps with java6 for the speed boast or will the new ajvaVM run them faster?

      I wonder if Jedit and Eclipse will see a speed gain with a javac recompile?
  • JAVA and GLP v3 (Score:4, Insightful)

    by MMC Monster (602931) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:08AM (#17276812)
    Did anyone really expect JAVA to be released as GPL v3? A license that hasn't even been written yet? Or wait until GPL v3 is released (is there a set date for that?)?
    • Well, some people expected "either version 2 or (at your option) any later version". That would have been more desirable, from the standpoint of everyone except Sun (and perhaps even Sun, if others follow with their own "GPLv2 only" licensing schemes---cf. what happened with the BSD advertising clause), but this will do for now.

    • by a.d.trick (894813)
      Or wait until GPL v3 is released (is there a set date for that?)?

      According to the FSF's website, they are planning to release it next spring. I remember some SUN guy talking about it, and they say they like the GPL3, but they want to open source their stuff now.

  • stigma (Score:5, Funny)

    by Threni (635302) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:11AM (#17276826)
    > Rails creator David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'"

    The stigma of a well paid job. Ah, how will I ever show my face in civilized society again.
    • I'm a J2EE guy, have to agree. All the snotty little bitches who look down their noses at those who work with particular technologies are the losers. It's a very comfortable living.
    • The stigma of a well paid job. Ah, how will I ever show my face in civilized society again?

      Money spent on software licenses is money that won't go into your pocket. Bill Gates is happy that he's still on your company's payroll, despite the trouble you have getting work done with his junk.

  • Who doesn't? Even if they're always wrong (the people who can predict that kind of things are the same people who are behind of the $Big $Companies and know what products and strategies are they releasing in the next year) people don't seems to stop reading them.

    It's like horoscope. There's always people wanting to hear what's going to happen in the future. It doesn't really matters what they say - we just want to be told what we want to hear. We love being lied. Some people wants to hear that nobody will b
  • The problem with Java has only in part been the license; mostly, it has been Sun's stifling control over the platform. As a result, Java has numerous technical problems. Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now. They'd be partially incompatible, and that would be a good thing.

    Overall, open sourcing Java was necessary for Sun to remain relevant at all; it will stabilize Java for a little longer, but unless Sun is willing
    • by Timesprout (579035) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @10:49AM (#17277012)
      Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now
      I love statements like this. The specs for the language have been available since day one. There are a couple of very good alternative implementations (free as in beer) and some very mediocre OSS attempts. Its been a constant source of amusement to me that for all the 'we have all the best developers etc etc etc' the 'community' has harped on at Sun for years to open source because basically they have been unable to produce a comparable implementation on their own. It's for this reason I think Sun opening Java fully will make sod all difference, just as opening Solaris made sod all difference (yes different licence but very much a case of 'ta we'll just cherry pick the good stuff like dtrace and port it to linux').
      • Sun opensourcing Solaris made sod all difference because we already had a viable open source operating system which ran on commodity platforms. Linux. Linux has what some management people call the first mover advantage. Solaris would have to be an order of magnitude better than Linux to displace it and it is not. Open sourcing Solaris was too little, too late. Hate it or love it, Linux is the one with the most apps, drivers, not to mention easier to get and well known of the two.

        You are belittling the

    • by Decaff (42676)
      Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now. They'd be partially incompatible, and that would be a good thing.

      It would have been a total disaster. One of the primary reasons for the success of Java is compatibility.

      Overall, open sourcing Java was necessary for Sun to remain relevant at all; it will stabilize Java for a little longer, but unless Sun is willing to make some radical changes to the Java platform--including a mas
    • They'd be partially incompatible, and that would be a good thing.
      Wha might be a good thing for you (how so, btw?) would be a nightmare for me and my customers.

      angel'o'sphere
    • Sun is willing to make some radical changes to the Java platform--including a massive cleanup and pruning of the libraries ....

      Would you care to point out some stuff to clean up, and show a migration path for old software to teh new cleaned up Java as well, please?

      Java has an excellent way in dealing with its libraries, just don't use any depricated stuff in developing new apps. I can't understand that anyone is caring about obsolet stuff in libraries and demands a clean up. The C-library probably got not c
  • No Agreement (Score:2, Insightful)

    by WED Fan (911325)

    AJAX is dying. AJAX will grow. AJAX has no future. AJAX has a future.

    JAVA is irrelevent. JAVA will grow.

    Apple is irrelevent. Apple is irrelevent...oh, they agreed.

    Anyway, anyone who takes these kind of articles seriously are wasting their time. Our shop does IIS, ASP.NET, SQL2005, Ruby-on-Rails, MySQL, VB.NET, C#, C++, Borland, MS, and Linux OSS flavors. In other words, we have the tools and the skills to do what is necessary to get the job done, the way our CUSTOMER needs it to be done. No tech prima-do

  • Pundits will continue to confuse "buzz" with reality. Professionals who work in a field will make choices based on getting their work done. Outside observers will base their knowledge on what seems new and trendy.
  • "The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#"

    I can certainly understand the appeal of ruby or python to write clear code. But the author then pulls a C# out of nowhere and places it in the same bag! Does he even know C# the language is almost an exact copy of Java the language plus a few Delphi touches?
  • by TheNarrator (200498) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @01:35PM (#17278080)
    I have been programming in Java since 2000 and it just gets easier and more powerful to develop with. Sure there were some big disasters in Java land like EJB1 and EJB2 but that's all cleared out of the way and the tools now are fantastic. I've been working with Appfuse, JSF, Hibernate, Testng, Spring and the latest versions of Eclipse and almost every day I find myself smiling with glee at how easy web development has become compared to a few years ago. The biggest mistakes for new developers in Java is not using Eclipse and not using either Maven or Appfuse. That's because there's a lot to take advantage of in Java land and getting all the tools and dependencies set up and rolling along can take quite a while. Both Maven and Appfuse make this process go a lot quicker and tend to steer the developer in the right direction. Eclipse makes understanding the whole thing a lot easier as well and the refactoring and debugging are amazing. After the initial setup though things start to become very easy and fun and development goes quickly. This is the opposite situation from programming in a dynamic language. Starting in a dynamic language is easy but as programs grow, the lack of static typing and refactoring support causes more and more bugs to start sprouting up and the system generally get more painful to work with.

        I don't know why anyone would want to work with C#. I never run into showstopper bugs in third party libraries with Java because I have the source and can trace into the libraries, find the bugs, report them to the developers and then find an intelligent workaround while a $35 call to MS tech support will tell me to reinstall my whole system and upgrade to the latest versions.
  • C# is a compiled language, not an interpreted (dynamic) language and is no different than java in this respect.
    • by Tim C (15259)
      The quote says "dynamic laguages ([examples]) and C#" - it doesn't say "dynamic languages ([examples one of which is C#])".

      In other words, he's not saying that C# is dynamic, he's saying that Java is losing ground to C# and dynamic languages. (Never mind that there appears to be no proof of that, and that it's not my experience, for what that's worth...)
  • by Shayde (189538) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @02:09PM (#17278310) Homepage
    The ONLY people who think Java is in decline in favor of Ruby or Python are the ivory tower academics who aren't actually developing large scale enterprise applications. Neither of these tools can manage true EE environment. Or if they can, the number of people who know how to build, maintain, and debug them is so tiny, it would be ludicrous to adapt a large installation to the platform.

    An environment is only as useful as the tools that are available for it. And it only takes a quick glance around the net to realize how HUGE the Java community is.

    Still not convinced? Lets take a look at Hotjobs. This is a pure keyword lookup, doing a little tuning to make sure we're not finding jeweler entries for 'ruby' :

    • 'java' 8213 job results.
    • 'python' 671 job results.
    • 'ruby' 180 job results.


    And just for giggles, lets throw some more searches:

    • 'php' 1063 job results.
    • 'c#' 2092 job results.
    • 'c++' 5482 job results.
    • 'perl' 3197 job results.


    So, in support of the claim that Java is in 'slow decline', we have... java as the most requested programming language in the job market today.

    • by Surt (22457) on Sunday December 17, 2006 @02:56PM (#17278660) Homepage Journal
      Indeed, and guess which language was in slow decline when it was the most requested language in the job market.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Shados (741919)
      Agreed. I'm a software developer working mostly on ERP systems in medium to large scale projects, and while I work in .NET 2.0 and 3.0, while speaking to people in the industry (mostly consulting firms), Java is actualy in GROWING demand.

      Currently, in my area, Java -junior- programmers get snatched right up. You don't hire junior programmers in a declining industry, you hire senior programmers (because by the time the juniors become senior, the environment will be history). There has been an increasing amo
    • Looking only at language features, both Python and Ruby are much better than Java.

      However, the Java VM is probably the best crafted runtime interpreter & JIT compiler in existence.

      Java has, in some cases, the performance of C++ or at least half the performance of it, while Ruby is (AFAIR) 18 times slower than C. Python is better, but is not in Java territory.

      Lisp is better than Java for big complex apps, and can have very good performance (in some cases better than C), but then, we are lacking a free mu
  • Personally, I just hope that the Java of the future will look and run much less like ass. That would be a great departure from the old Java.

    Right about now, you are moving your mouse toward the "Mod this fruitcake down" button, but don't misunderstand me. I have high hopes for the language. I have been saying for a number of years that Sun had been letting a hot property fall into disrepair while MS played catch up and eventually lapped Java with it's own .NET platform. I've written for both. I like ja
  • Cornell: 'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#';

    In 2007, apples still won't be oranges.
  • I have seen the future and bring you word of the doom which growth nigh. In the year 2007 Java will be rocked by disaster on the scale which has not been seen - the devastation [wikipedia.org] will be heard 'round the globe.

    Repent now!

    Oh, um ... sorry that was for 1883. I have seen the past! Repent earlier!

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